Incyte Corporation INCY is expected to beat estimates when it reports first-quarter 2025 earnings results on April 29, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s revenues is pegged at $1.01 billion, while the same for earnings is pinned at $1.05 per share. (Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
Let’s see how things might have shaped up prior to the announcement.
Factors Likely to Influence INCY’s Q1 Results
Incyte primarily derives product revenues from the sales of its lead drug, Jakafi (ruxolitinib), in the United States and other marketed drugs. Its momentum is likely to have continued on the back of Jakafi, a first-in-class JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor, in all approved indications (polycythemia vera, myelofibrosis and refractory acute graft-versus-host disease [GvHD]). However, competition from other approved drugs might have restricted sales growth potential to some extent.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Jakafi's first-quarter sales is pegged at $661 million.
Incyte also earns product royalty revenues from Novartis NVS for the commercialization of Jakafi in ex-U.S. markets.
While Incyte markets Jakafi in the United States, Novartis markets the same drug as Jakavi outside the United States. Novartis reported strong performance of Jakavi in the fourth quarter of 2024, with sales of the drug witnessing a 13% increase on a constant currency basis. The trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter. Hence, royalties from the same are likely to have been higher.
Year to date, shares of Incyte have lost 16.9% compared with the industry’s decline of 8.7%.
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Incyte also receives royalties from the sales of Tabrecta (capmatinib), which is approved for treating adult patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer. NVS has exclusive worldwide development and commercialization rights to Tabrecta.
In the to-be-reported quarter, growth in Opzelura sales is likely to have been driven by continued growth in new patient starts and refills in the United States and increased contribution from the EU.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Opzelura’s first-quarter sales is pegged at $127 million.
While Jakafi’s sales and royalties are the key catalysts for Incyte’s revenue growth, sales of other drugs like Minjuvi, Pemazyre, Iclusig and Olumiant’s royalties from Eli Lilly are also likely to have contributed to Incyte’s top line. In 2024, the company entered into an asset purchase agreement with MorphoSys AG. This gave Incyte exclusive global rights to tafasitamab, a humanized Fc-modified CD19-targeting immunotherapy marketed in the United States (as Monjuvi) and outside the country (as Minjuvi).
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Iclusig, Minjuvi and Pemazyre’s fourth-quarter sales is pegged at $28.67 million, $33.43 million and $21.62 million, respectively. Incremental sales from Zynyz, too, are expected to have boosted Incyte’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.
Incyte and partner Syndax Pharmaceuticals obtained FDA approval for axatilimab-csfr, an anti-CSF-1R antibody, for the treatment of GVHD after the failure of at least two prior lines of systemic therapy in adult and pediatric patients weighing at least 40 kg. The candidate was approved under the brand name Niktimvo. The drug is Incyte’s second approved treatment for chronic GvHD (third-line) and was launched in the United States during the first quarter of 2025. Investors will be keen to get an update on the incremental sales figures and launch activities for Niktimvo during the earnings announcement.
Per management, 2025 is poised to be a transformational year for INCY, with four potential launches and several clinical milestones expected. Higher research and development expenses, as well as increased selling and general and administrative costs, are likely to have escalated operating expenses in the first quarter.
INCY’s Earnings Surprise History
Incyte has a disappointing history of earnings surprises. The company missed on earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average negative surprise of 92.90%. In the last reported quarter, INCY posted a negative earnings surprise of 6.54%.
Incyte Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Incyte Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for INCY this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here, as you will see below.
INCY’s Earnings ESP: Incyte’s Earnings ESP is +12.17% as the Most Accurate Estimate currently stands at $1.18, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which is pegged at $1.05. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
INCY’s Zacks Rank: INCY has a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
argenx ARGX has an Earnings ESP of +10.92% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
argenx stock has lost 2.5% year to date. ARGX beat on earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two, delivering an average surprise of 345.11%.
CytomX Therapeutics CTMX has an Earnings ESP of +38.89% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
CytomX Therapeutics’ shares have plunged 28.5% year to date. CTMX beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other one, delivering an average surprise of 180.70%.
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