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As you might know, Implenia AG (VTX:IMPN) recently reported its annual numbers. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at CHF3.6b, roughly what the analysts had been expecting. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Implenia
Following last week's earnings report, Implenia's three analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be CHF3.58b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CHF3.67b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF4.60 in 2024. Overall, while there's been a small dip in revenue estimates, the consensus now no longer provides an EPS estimate. This implies that the market believes revenue is more important following the latest results.
There's been no real change to the consensus price target of CHF38.50, with Implenia seemingly executing in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Implenia, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CHF39.00 and the most bearish at CHF38.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2024 compared to the historical decline of 5.4% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Implenia to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their revenue estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.