Can You Imagine How Jubilant GB Group's (LON:GBG) Shareholders Feel About Its 243% Share Price Gain?
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When you buy a stock there is always a possibility that it could drop 100%. But on a lighter note, a good company can see its share price rise well over 100%. For example, the GB Group plc (LON:GBG) share price has soared 243% in the last half decade. Most would be very happy with that. But it's down 8.0% in the last week. But note that the broader market is down 0.7% since last week, and this may have impacted GB Group's share price.
See our latest analysis for GB Group
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Over half a decade, GB Group managed to grow its earnings per share at 22% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 28% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth. This favorable sentiment is reflected in its (fairly optimistic) P/E ratio of 71.15.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. This free interactive report on GB Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, GB Group's TSR for the last 5 years was 253%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that GB Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 18% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. However, that falls short of the 29% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand GB Group better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for GB Group that you should be aware of before investing here.