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The market wasn't impressed with the soft earnings from Iluka Resources Limited (ASX:ILU) recently. We did some analysis, and found that there are some reasons to be cautious about the headline numbers.
Check out our latest analysis for Iluka Resources
A Closer Look At Iluka Resources' Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
For the year to December 2024, Iluka Resources had an accrual ratio of 0.25. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of AU$311m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of AU$231.3m. We also note that Iluka Resources' free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of AU$311m.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Iluka Resources' Profit Performance
Iluka Resources didn't convert much of its profit to free cash flow in the last year, which some investors may consider rather suboptimal. Therefore, it seems possible to us that Iluka Resources' true underlying earnings power is actually less than its statutory profit. Sadly, its EPS was down over the last twelve months. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. If you'd like to know more about Iluka Resources as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Iluka Resources you should know about.