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The truth is that if you invest for long enough, you're going to end up with some losing stocks. But the long term shareholders of IGO Limited (ASX:IGO) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. Sadly for them, the share price is down 58% in that time. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 32% in the last year. In contrast, the stock price has popped 8.2% in the last thirty days.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for IGO isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
View our latest analysis for IGO
Given that IGO only made minimal earnings in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue to gauge its business development. As a general rule, we think this kind of company is more comparable to loss-making stocks, since the actual profit is so low. It would be hard to believe in a more profitable future without growing revenues.
In the last three years, IGO saw its revenue grow by 8.4% per year, compound. That's a pretty good rate of top-line growth. So some shareholders would be frustrated with the compound loss of 16% per year. The market must have had really high expectations to be disappointed with this progress. It would be well worth taking a closer look at the company, to determine growth trends (and balance sheet strength).
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for IGO in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, IGO's TSR for the last 3 years was -52%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 14% in the last year, IGO shareholders lost 27% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 1.2% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand IGO better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with IGO , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.