There's been a notable change in appetite for Hutchison China MediTech Limited (LON:HCM) shares in the week since its third-quarter report, with the stock down 18% to UK£3.64. Hutchison China MediTech beat revenue forecasts by a solid 13%, hitting US$49m. Statutory losses also increased, with a per-share loss of US$0.11, slightly larger than what analysts were expecting. Following the result, analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see analysts' latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Hutchison China MediTech

Taking into account the latest results, the latest consensus from Hutchison China MediTech's nine analysts is for revenues of US$214.3m in 2020, which would reflect a modest 4.7% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 70% (on a statutory basis) to US$0.24. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$212.4m and US$0.24 per share in losses. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a earnings per share expectations, suggesting that analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$6.32, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with analyst expectations despite ongoing losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Hutchison China MediTech analyst has a price target of US$7.74 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.69. This shows there is still quite a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

It can also be useful to step back and take a broader view of how analyst forecasts compare to Hutchison China MediTech's performance in recent years. It's pretty clear that analysts expect Hutchison China MediTech's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 4.7%, compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. By way of comparison, other companies in this market with analyst coverage, are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, analysts still expect the wider market to grow faster than Hutchison China MediTech.