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My safari hat has been on for a month in search of big-game inflation.

I blame Walmart (WMT) CFO John David Rainey for making me get into this wardrobe.

"And so we'll work hard to try to keep prices low. But it's unavoidable that you're going to see some prices go up on certain items," Rainey told me in mid-May after Walmart reported first quarter earnings.

Rainey — responding to my question on the impact of new Trump tariffs — said increases would be noticeable in a few short weeks.

"Well, if you've got a 30% tariff on something, you're likely going to see double digits [in price increases]," Rainey warned.

I've been on high alert ever since for signs of eye-popping inflation that brings back the discussion of a potential Fed rate hike this year (which has gone dormant). Or, at the bare minimum, renewed market volatility due to a more uncertain outlook.

By and large, my hunting expeditions have come up short.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.2%. The tame jump put the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, its lowest since February 2021. This report hit the wires on May 13, before an inflation-indicator company like Walmart warned about the looming effects of tariffs.

Still, a data point is a data point.

Also surprisingly docile was the inflation expectations reading in the University of Michigan's May sentiment report.

Year-ahead inflation expectations were little changed at 6.6% versus April's 6.5%. The uptick marked the smallest increase since the election and ended a four-month streak of "extremely large" jumps in near-term inflation expectations.

Long-term inflation expectations dropped to 4.2% in May from 4.4% in April. This was the first decline since December 2024.

Again, a data point is a data point.

While I hate to be the bearer of bad news, I have started to scope inflation charging out on the prairie. What I'm seeing seems to validate what Rainey told me and could set the stage for negative surprises for the bulls on inflation report days.

New research from Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton shows that major retailers still reliant on China and other markets for production have begun to jack up prices a good bit.

The average footwear year-over-year price increase tallied 13% in May, according to Straton's research. The prior six-month average was 1%. Under Armour (UA) and ON Holdings (ONON) were cited as being aggressive on recent price hikes.