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The nature of investing is that you win some, and you lose some. And unfortunately for Humacyte, Inc. (NASDAQ:HUMA) shareholders, the stock is a lot lower today than it was a year ago. The share price has slid 68% in that time. Humacyte hasn't been listed for long, so although we're wary of recent listings that perform poorly, it may still prove itself with time. Furthermore, it's down 53% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.
So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
View our latest analysis for Humacyte
With just US$1,341,000 worth of revenue in twelve months, we don't think the market considers Humacyte to have proven its business plan. This state of affairs suggests that venture capitalists won't provide funds on attractive terms. As a result, we think it's unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. For example, they may be hoping that Humacyte comes up with a great new product, before it runs out of money.
As a general rule, if a company doesn't have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. There is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets to raise equity. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing. Humacyte has already given some investors a taste of the bitter losses that high risk investing can cause.
When it reported in March 2022 Humacyte had minimal cash in excess of all liabilities consider its expenditure: just US$46m to be specific. So if it hasn't remedied the situation already, it will almost certainly have to raise more capital soon. That probably explains why the share price is down 68% in the last year. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Humacyte's cash levels have changed over time.
Of course, the truth is that it is hard to value companies without much revenue or profit. Would it bother you if insiders were selling the stock? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It only takes a moment for you to check whether we have identified any insider sales recently.
A Different Perspective
We doubt Humacyte shareholders are happy with the loss of 68% over twelve months. That falls short of the market, which lost 20%. There's no doubt that's a disappointment, but the stock may well have fared better in a stronger market. The share price decline has continued throughout the most recent three months, down 53%, suggesting an absence of enthusiasm from investors. Given the relatively short history of this stock, we'd remain pretty wary until we see some strong business performance. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Humacyte better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Humacyte .