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One of the biggest stories of last week was how Hudbay Minerals Inc. (TSE:HBM) shares plunged 22% in the week since its latest full-year results, closing yesterday at CA$10.10. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.20, some 53% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$2.0b. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Hudbay Minerals
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Hudbay Minerals' eleven analysts is for revenues of US$2.10b in 2025. This reflects a credible 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 262% to US$0.70. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.22b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.83 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CA$15.10 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hudbay Minerals at CA$17.33 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$13.53. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Hudbay Minerals shareholders.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Hudbay Minerals' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Hudbay Minerals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Hudbay Minerals.