Hub Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:HUBG) Stock Has Shown Weakness Lately But Financial Prospects Look Decent: Is The Market Wrong?

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Mon, Apr 7, 2025, 6:22 AM 4 min read

With its stock down 24% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Hub Group (NASDAQ:HUBG). But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Hub Group's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

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How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Hub Group is:

6.1% = US$104m ÷ US$1.7b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.06 in profit.

See our latest analysis for Hub Group

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Hub Group's Earnings Growth And 6.1% ROE

When you first look at it, Hub Group's ROE doesn't look that attractive. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 11%. Although, we can see that Hub Group saw a modest net income growth of 12% over the past five years. We reckon that there could be other factors at play here. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

As a next step, we compared Hub Group's net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 8.4%.

past-earnings-growth — NasdaqGS:HUBG Past Earnings Growth April 7th 2025

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is Hub Group fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Hub Group Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Hub Group's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 17% (implying that it retains 83% of its income), which is on the lower side, so it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business.

While Hub Group has been growing its earnings, it only recently started to pay dividends which likely means that the company decided to impress new and existing shareholders with a dividend. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 14%. Still, forecasts suggest that Hub Group's future ROE will rise to 9.6% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that Hub Group certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Despite its low rate of return, the fact that the company reinvests a very high portion of its profits into its business, no doubt contributed to its high earnings growth. On studying current analyst estimates, we found that analysts expect the company to continue its recent growth streak. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.