The bottom-line outlook is more than just a little blurry for liquor makers if a trade war on alcohol commences.

Trump has threatened a 200% tariff on European wine, champagne, and spirits if the European Union moves forward with a 50% tariff on American whiskey. The EU's tariff was unveiled in response to new steel and aluminum tariffs by the Trump administration and is expected to go into effect on April 1.

Liquor giants Brown-Forman (BF-B) and Diageo (DEO) have a lot to lose if the situation escalates.

Jack Daniels and Woodford Reserve whiskey maker Brown-Forman could see $0.36 per share in earnings wiped out if the EU's tariffs on whiskey go into effect, Evercore analyst Robert Ottenstein estimated in a new note on Monday. Brown-Forman sources about 20% of its sales from the EU and UK, with an 80%/20% split between the two regions.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Not helping Brown-Forman is that it gets 7% of its sales from Mexico and 1% of its sales from Canada — a 25% tariff applied to both countries could hit earnings per share by $0.07.

"We are pleased that [European Union] President von der Leyen and Trade Commissioner Šefčovič expressed a desire to negotiate with the U.S. and are hopeful the two sides will reach a constructive resolution before the tariffs take effect on April 1. The tariff conversation is bigger than Brown-Forman and our industry, and it’s evolving rapidly," a Brown-Forman spokesperson told Yahoo Finance.

Things aren't much brighter for Johnny Walker scotch producer Diageo, which had already been struggling fundamentally in the lead-up to the trade war.

Diageo has said about 9% of its US sales is scotch. Ketel One and Tanqueray, made in Europe, represent 5% of sales, Ottenstein estimates. The company stands to lose $0.04 a share for every 25% tariff applied.

A 200% tariff on European-made alcohol would wallop Diageo to the tune of $0.28.

Similar to Brown-Forman, Diageo is exposed to tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Roughly 45% of the company's US sales come from Canada (mostly Crown Royal) and Mexico (tequila). Assuming the company could mitigate some of the blow by changing supply chains and price hikes, Ottenstein thinks Diageo's earnings per share would be hit by $0.04.

Ottenstein also laid out several factors that could weigh on each company besides the raw application of tariffs:

• Boycotts or the removal of non-domestic brands from shelves could drive more significant headwinds for liquor makers. Reports from Canada suggest that some consumers are avoiding American-made alcohol.

• The spirits pricing environment is "fragile," which could make it difficult for liquor makers to offset tariffs.

• Beer could benefit as its relative affordability rises compared to tariffed spirits and wine.