How much the Obamacare repeal might cost

Speaker Paul Ryan discusses the House GOP’s plan. Source: Getty
Speaker Paul Ryan discusses the House GOP’s plan. Source: Getty

The Obamacare repeal bill, called American Health Care Act, is rolling through Congress, passing the first committee. However, there is still no analysis from the Congressional Budget Office as to how much the bill will cost American taxpayers and how many more (or fewer) people would be insured under the plan. Many members of Congress, so far, have voted for a new plan without an assessment of whether it’s better than the existing plan.

The CBO, the nonpartisan agency Congress relies on for estimating the impact of legislation, is working on scoring the bill, but the analysis isn’t yet out. In its absence, Brookings, Standard & Poor’s, and a few other outfits have provided an idea of what to expect. The results will likely anger budget hawks and small-government Republicans and severely aggravate Democrats. So far, the AHCA has been a bill only a parent would love, and few people other than its parents, Speaker Paul Ryan and the White House, have expressed support.

Here’s what certain institutions have put out.

Brookings

Brookings has arguably the most comprehensive analysis on what to expect from the CBO, and it paints a bleak picture. “We conclude that CBO’s analysis will likely estimate that at least 15 million people will lose coverage under the American Health Care Act (AHCA) by the end of the ten-year scoring window,” the report says. “Estimates could be higher, but it’s unlikely they will be significantly lower.” The 15 million number comes from the population that is affected by the repeal of the mandate for coverage and Medicaid losses. As for the changes in subsidies, the Brookings analysis noted that they are “unlikely to substantially mitigate coverage loss.”

Brookings gives a ballpark estimate for how much this will cost. Adding up $600 billion in tax cuts, $100 billion in new state grants for high risk pools, “additional revenue losses” from removing the employer mandate, comes to at least $700 billion. “Increasing total spending on tax credits while avoiding an increase in the deficit is likely impossible, even taking into account the bill’s Medicaid cuts.”

Coverage estimate: 15 million people would lose insurance, and maybe millions more.

Cost estimate: No cost savings over the current system.

S&P Global

S&P found that the switch from the ACA to the AHCA would shake up the markets in a massive way, given how fragile and complex health care in the US currently is. “If signed into law, [the AHCA] will fundamentally change federal financing of healthcare, especially for the Medicaid and individual insurance segments,” S&P analysts note.