Will Hot Chili (ASX:HCH) Spend Its Cash Wisely?

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editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Sat, Mar 8, 2025, 3:02 PM 4 min read

There's no doubt that money can be made by owning shares of unprofitable businesses. For example, although Amazon.com made losses for many years after listing, if you had bought and held the shares since 1999, you would have made a fortune. Nonetheless, only a fool would ignore the risk that a loss making company burns through its cash too quickly.

Given this risk, we thought we'd take a look at whether Hot Chili (ASX:HCH) shareholders should be worried about its cash burn. For the purposes of this article, cash burn is the annual rate at which an unprofitable company spends cash to fund its growth; its negative free cash flow. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

Check out our latest analysis for Hot Chili

Does Hot Chili Have A Long Cash Runway?

A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. When Hot Chili last reported its June 2024 balance sheet in September 2024, it had zero debt and cash worth AU$34m. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through AU$20m. Therefore, from June 2024 it had roughly 20 months of cash runway. Notably, analysts forecast that Hot Chili will break even (at a free cash flow level) in about 5 years. That means unless the company reduces its cash burn quickly, it may well look to raise more cash. You can see how its cash balance has changed over time in the image below.

debt-equity-history-analysis — ASX:HCH Debt to Equity History March 8th 2025

How Is Hot Chili's Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Because Hot Chili isn't currently generating revenue, we consider it an early-stage business. So while we can't look to sales to understand growth, we can look at how the cash burn is changing to understand how expenditure is trending over time. With cash burn dropping by 2.7% it seems management feel the company is spending enough to advance its business plans at an appropriate pace. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. So you might want to take a peek at how much the company is expected to grow in the next few years.

How Hard Would It Be For Hot Chili To Raise More Cash For Growth?

Even though it has reduced its cash burn recently, shareholders should still consider how easy it would be for Hot Chili to raise more cash in the future. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. Many companies end up issuing new shares to fund future growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.

Hot Chili has a market capitalisation of AU$109m and burnt through AU$20m last year, which is 19% of the company's market value. Given that situation, it's fair to say the company wouldn't have much trouble raising more cash for growth, but shareholders would be somewhat diluted.

So, Should We Worry About Hot Chili's Cash Burn?

The good news is that in our view Hot Chili's cash burn situation gives shareholders real reason for optimism. Not only was its cash burn relative to its market cap quite good, but its cash runway was a real positive. Shareholders can take heart from the fact that analysts are forecasting it will reach breakeven. We don't think its cash burn is particularly problematic, but after considering the range of factors in this article, we do think shareholders should be monitoring how it changes over time. On another note, we conducted an in-depth investigation of the company, and identified 5 warning signs for Hot Chili (2 are a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies with significant insider holdings, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.