Honolulu (City & County of) HI -- Moody's assigns Aa1 to Honolulu, HI's 2020 GO bonds; outlook negative

Rating Action: Moody's assigns Aa1 to Honolulu, HI's 2020 GO bonds; outlook negative

Global Credit Research - 14 Jul 2020

New York, July 14, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service has assigned Aa1 ratings to the City and County of Honolulu, Hawaii's General Obligation Bonds, Series 2020C ($189.3 million), Series 2020D ($54.3 million), Series 2020E (Taxable) ($41.2 million) and Series 2020F (Refunding) ($68.9 million). Moody's has affirmed the Aa1 ratings on Honolulu's $3.7 billion in outstanding general obligation bonds. We also maintain a P-1 rating on Honolulu's commercial paper program. The outlook has been revised to negative from stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The Aa1 ratings take into consideration Honolulu's massive tax base that has shown healthy long-term growth, as well as the strength and stability of the city and county's financial profile derived from that tax base. Although the coronavirus pandemic has severely curtailed the tourism activity that is a key driver of the economy, most of Honolulu's revenue is derived from property taxes rates that are incredibly low and reflective of assessments that are 18-24 months in arrears of real market activity, making it substantially less exposed and better positioned to respond to economic declines. Ample liquidity provides the city and county a substantial buffer to manage cash flows if the current economic dislocation from the coronavirus pandemic results in property tax delinquencies. As a result, Honolulu's financial profile will remain solid given a revenue structure that in the short-term is somewhat insulated from the immediate effects of the coronavirus on its tourism-supported economy. Large private and public construction projects and a significant military presence provide some offsetting stability to an economy that has been significantly slowed by the coronavirus, and the city has been the beneficiary of substantial federal aid. Debt is manageable, and the city and county has over the last several years adjusted its financial operations to respond to higher required contribution rates to address relatively high pension and OPEB liabilities.

RATING OUTLOOK

The negative outlook reflects our expectation that severe weakness in air travel will continue to suppress visitor counts to Honolulu, and weak economic conditions both in the US and globally will hurt tourism spending. Although these do not directly impact Honolulu's property tax revenue in the short-term, sustained levels of elevated unemployment will eventually hurt property valuations and property tax collections, and elevated fixed costs from debt, pension and OPEB liabilities will limit Honolulu's ability to make significant expenditure cuts. Shortfalls in general excise taxes and transient accommodations taxes in support of the rail project will remain manageable for the city and county relative to the size of its tax base and existing debt portfolio but add incremental contingent liability risks. Climate risks, particularly those related to sea level rise, are mid-to-long term challenges that state and local leaders are beginning to address.