Despite handwringing over how badly pro-democracy protests will hurt Hong Kong's tourism sector, it isn't clear whether the turmoil is keeping mainland tourists away.
"So far, there doesn't seem to be any change in travel plans," Song Seng Wun, a Singapore-based economist at CIMB (Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange: CIMB-MY), told CNBC Wednesday. As long as protests remain peaceful, "there's still reason to get on a plane to buy the roast duck. Chats with hotels haven't really seen any meaningful cancellations."
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Travel agencies around Beijing told CNBC that their tours to Hong Kong are fully booked through the end of the Golden Week holiday, with no cancellations.
Tourism is important for Hong Kong, responsible for around 5 percent of its economy, and mainlanders accounted for around 75 percent of total tourist arrivals in 2013, according to statistics from the territory's Tourism Commission.
Year-to-August arrivals from mainland China were up nearly 16 percent from the year-earlier period, faster than the around 12 percent growth for total arrivals, but total spending by all inbound tourists rose only 8.7 percent over that period, according to official data.
One reason mainlanders may not be changing their travel plans: they may simply be unaware of the protests due to media blackouts and censorship.
But it could prove difficult to discern whether any decline in mainland arrivals or changes in their spending habits are due to the protests or part of a broader trend.
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"Mainland tourists' arrivals have already slowed since the first quarter of 2014 and a further decline may be in store in the near term," UOB KayHian (Singapore Exchange: UOKH-SG) said in a note Tuesday. "Mainland visitor arrivals could trend even lower than in May, in view of the Occupy Central Movement."
Many analysts -- including UOB KayHian -- are concerned over whether the protests in the key Central shopping district will hurt retail sales during the Golden Week holiday, but they also note another trend may be in play: Chinese tourists have more travel options than just Hong Kong.
For example, cosmetics retailer Sa Sa (Hong Kong Stock Exchange: 178-HK) has said that the significance of Golden Week has been declining as travelers head to other countries, UOB KayHian noted.
ANZ estimates that the protests have cost Hong Kong's retailers around 2.2 billion Hong Kong dollars ($280 million), or around 6 percent of the month's total retail sales. But the impact varies by type of retailer, with sales of luxury goods, cosmetics and durables hard hit, while convenience store and supermarket sales should hold up, said Raymond Yeung, senior economist at ANZ, in a note Friday.