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Key Takeaways

• More than 157 million may shop this Saturday, according to the National Retail Federation.

• Holiday spending has, so far, been strong online, though less robust in stores.

• Retailers expect to end the season on a strong note, posting some $989 billion in sales, or 3.5% more than last year, according to the NRF.

Retailers are optimistic that already-brisk holiday shopping will accelerate in the final stretch before Christmas.

Early indicators suggest Americans are spending significantly online this year, lifting retailers’ hopes for a robust season finale, though some data points to less activity in stores.

Digital spending hit a record $10.8 billion this Black Friday, Adobe said, contributing to a 1.4% uptick in retail spending year-over-year this November, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said. There’s reason to believe the momentum will continue, the trade group said, saying that just 10% of people indicated early this month that they had checked off their entire gift list.

More than 157 million people may shop on the final Saturday before Christmas, the NRF said, which would be the second-largest amount in recent years. Many consumers — some 70% — plan to shop in the days immediately following Christmas, NRF said, so they can take advantage of deals, use gift cards and return unwanted items. By January, holiday spending may hit $989 billion, about 3.5% more than last year, the group said.

“With a shortened window between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, consumers will be hitting stores and shopping online to get those final gifts and to take advantage of special promotions and deals,” said Katherine Cullen, NRF's vice president of industry and consumer insights.

So far, spending has surged online, but been less pronounced in the brick-and-mortar shops that account for 70% of retail sales, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote this week. Stores had about 3% fewer visitors this Black Friday compared to last year, according to the traffic analytics firm, RetailNext, while sales were down 2.3%.

A healthy share of those browsing in person made a purchase, according to RetailNext, showing that people are being particularly deliberate this year.

“They’re being more intentional with their purchases, often opting for higher-ticket items over filling their baskets with smaller goods,” said Joe Shasteen, global head of advanced analytics at RetailNext. “It’s clear that intentional spending remains the theme."

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