Analyst: Holiday shopping will be 'very, very good' despite coronavirus, stimulus headwinds

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Consumer spending, which has stayed resilient despite headwinds from a lack of additional fiscal stimulus and a labor market decimated by COVID-19, is showing promise ahead of the holiday season.

On Friday, data showed that retail sales rose 1.9% in the month of September, climbing for a fifth month in a row — even as personal income dropped and consumers are saving money at historically high levels, with anxiety about the coronavirus recovery running high. Meanwhile, apparel sales are suffering as many professionals work remotely.

However, the former CEO of Toys R Us and Hudson’s Bay told Yahoo Finance that the current environment actually spells great news for the Thanksgiving to Christmas shopping sprint.

“I think holiday sales will be very strong. I've been saying that all along. People have been saving their money,” Gerald Storch, CEO of Storch Advisors told “The Final Round” in an interview.

“Consumers have a lot of cash. When you look at the consumer balance sheet, it's very strong,” he added. “So we know September sales were not just good, they were very, very good. October sales will be off the charts because a lot of retailers have brought sales forward into October.”

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 30: People wearing masks pass by a Best Buy in Union Square as the city continues Phase 4 of re-opening following restrictions imposed to slow the spread of coronavirus on September 30, 2020 in New York City. The fourth phase allows outdoor arts and entertainment, sporting events without fans and media production. (Photo by Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 30 (Photo by Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images)

October’s big shopping event was led by Amazon’s (AMZN) Prime Day, which ran October 13-14 with discounts on more than a million products. Meanwhile, other retailers joined in on the sale frenzy, offering deals of their own to better compete with the e-commerce giant.

Events like Prime Day likely pulled some holiday spending forward, compared to prior years. Recently, Salesforce forecasted the holiday shopping season will start early — with $6 billion of November’s Cyber Week volume in the U.S. and $26 billion globally to be pulled forward to the month of October.

Not shopping to ‘go out and look fancy’

For September, sales of clothing and accessories— which have been hard-hit by the stay-at-home trend sparked by coronavirus lockdowns — jumped 11% month-over-month, while electronics and appliances declined -1.6%.

Yet Storch doesn’t think this buying behavior is indicative of what we are going to see this year. Because similar to last holiday season, department stores continue to suffer because they’re using outdated business models and not adjusting to consumers’ shift in behavior nearly fast enough, Storch believes.

And on top of that, the pandemic has changed consumer preferences. While people are no longer dropping significant amounts of money on clothing, they are fixing up and decorating their home, or buying Apple’s new iPhone 12 models and other electronics.