Nov. 23—Inflation that is lingering like an unwanted party guest and a looming recession that may or may not show are putting a dash of gloom on an otherwise cheery holiday shopping outlook.
During the holiday season around the East Valley, businesses and business leaders are expecting consumers to follow a national trend that might be called "shop, eat — and be wary."
A recent Associated Press story said expectations are for "a relatively solid holiday season for America's small businesses. Yet, owners of these businesses appear to have a collective anxiety."
Nationally, holiday retail sales are expected to increase between 3% and 4% in 2023, according to trade group the National Retail Federation. In 2022, sales jumped 5.3%, according to the NRF.
But inflation — including higher employee wages — have both shoppers and sellers a bit anxious.
The four weeks that for many businesses can be the bulk of 2023 sales kick off, as usual, the day after Thanksgiving.
With all the online options, is Black Friday still "a thing"?
"Absolutely," said a manager at LEGO in Chandler Square, who asked his name not be used.
Typically, he said, LEGO fans will be lined up when the store opens at 6 a.m. — three hours early — on Black Friday.
"They've either stayed the night or got there at 3 or 4 a.m.," he said.
He expects a repeat of the 2022 Black Friday: "fun moments but stressful moments.
"Business only slows down if we run out of products — of big-ticket items."
Popular LEGO sets include the Eiffel tower ($629) and a Star Wars AT-AT ($849).
The Chandler manager said the special prices and products LEGO will release Black Friday are tightly-guarded secrets.
Mark Stanton, president/CEO of the Scottsdale Area Chamber of Commerce, said local retailers are ramping up for Black Friday and "seeing a good trajectory."
He predicted "a great season for shopping for retail in Scottsdale and the Scottsdale area."
His counterpart in Mesa was a bit more guarded.
"From the few members who've talked about the holidays, most are expecting results like last year or lighter in sales, but hoping for the best," said Sally Harrison, president/CEO of the Mesa Chamber of Commerce, said.
Like others around the Valley, Harrison sums up her holiday wishes in two words:
Shop local.
"We know that many of our smaller businesses are dealing with struggles from inflation to workforce," she said.
"We would hope that when our community is out doing their shopping that they'll consider supporting our small business community."
The hunt begins
Steve Chucri is quick to point out the holidays are not just for hunting for sales — but also hunting for food.
"Shopping and eating are hand-in-glove," said Chucri, president and CEO of the Arizona Restaurant Association since 2002.
And, he notes, "restaurants are a part of shopping — more and more, restaurants are doing incentives with gift cards."
The association is launching a billboard campaign: "There's No Place Like Home for the Holidays" — with photos of restaurants.
"Your restaurant is your home nowadays," Chucri said. "We're a lifestyle."
Born and raised in Mesa, the Paradise Valley resident says he remembers when "in the '80s early '90s, no restaurants were open on holidays."
Now, he said, many restaurants are finding being open on Thanksgiving becomes one of their biggest days of the year.
Though Chucri hears woes of owners having to pay more for food and staff to cook and serve it, he said many think jingling bells will lead to cash register beeps: "The restaurants I speak to, many of them are expecting a robust holiday season.
"We're optimistic of having the holiday season be a crown jewel to a very strong year for Arizona restaurants."
Big sporting events — the Super Bowl, Waste Management Open, World Series — amped up restaurant traffic in 2023, he said.
And, Chucri said, the recent "Restaurant Week," in which participating eateries have fixed-price meals, was "the best in the last five or six years.
"During restaurant week, people are thinking, 'What is going to be the best value we can give to bring people back over the holiday season?'"
In general, he said, the East Valley is setting the pace for the state's restaurant scene.
"Both Chandler and Gilbert are absolutely taking off and very busy," he said. "We're expecting to continue to see very strong growth there — and, hopefully, some new restaurants coming to Mesa."
Gotta go!
According to Terri Kimble, president and CEO of the Chandler Chamber of Commerce, "Merchants are optimistic about this holiday season."
Yet, Kimble said. things have changed, from the old unlock-the-doors-and-let-customers-pour-in days.
"Merchants are offering in store promotions and experience shopping to entice shoppers to shop local," Kimble said.
"They are offering innovative ways to engage customers, such as offering personalized recommendations, experience shopping and open houses."
And many are hitting social media and "targeted marketing campaigns to reach and connect with their audiences.
"Chandler retailers are hopeful that the holiday season will bring increased consumer spending," Kimble concluded, "as people look to celebrate and exchange gifts with their loved ones."
Candle Chemistry, or one, is "burning" to get to Black Friday and beyond.
"It's going to be a busy season," said Gloria, a manager.
She said Black Friday was "great last year," and expects a repeat in 2023.
On the second Saturday of November, Gloria didn't have time to give her last name:
"It's quite busy in here," she said, "so I'm going to have to run."
