The USS Arkansas nuclear submarine was christened earlier this month at a Newport News Shipbuilding division. - HII
NEWPORT NEWS, Va.—On a bright, frigid Saturday morning earlier this month, a crowd gathered at the gaping entrance to a 120-foot-high facility here to watch a pioneer of the civil-rights era christen the nuclear submarine USS Arkansas by smashing a bottle of wine near its bow.
Milling around beneath the massive black submarine were workers who build and refurbish warships, like Joshua Powell, an 18-year-old machinist. Powell had dropped out of college when he concluded pushing paper around wasn’t for him, and joined the shipyard where his father and brother work.
“I wanted to be a part of something great, something big,” he said. “It’s hands-on. I can feel it physically, instead of mentally.” He is hoping to apprentice and pick up additional trades and, eventually, become foreman or superintendent.
The problem: There aren’t enough Joshua Powells. The Navy wants more ships, but shipyards face dire shortages of labor amid rising pay for less demanding fields.
Joshua Powell, an 18-year-old machinist, joined the same shipyard where his father and brother work. - Greg Ip/WSJ
Powell has urged his best friend from high school to join him. “But it’s not something he can see himself doing,” Powell said. “It’s hard work. It’s hard to imagine that one day you’ll be working on submarines that will be used in war. Everything you do needs to be perfect.”
Jennifer Boykin, president of Newport News Shipbuilding, said the operation here loses 20% of its hourly craft workers each year to attrition — retirement, quits, dismissals—compared with 10% before the pandemic. Newport News Shipbuilding, a unit of Huntington Ingalls Industries, and General Dynamics’ Electric Boat unit based in Groton, Conn., jointly build attack submarines (used mainly against others ships) and ballistic missile submarines (part of the nuclear deterrent).
Labor shortages are now a national-security problem. They are a key reason numerous navy programs are behind schedule and over budget. The Navy had originally budgeted $15 billion for three Virginia-class attack subs in fiscal 2024 and 2025. The Biden administration has just asked Congress for an additional $3.4 billion, plus $1.6 billion for a ballistic missile submarine. The USS Arkansas, a Virginia-class sub, is expected to join the fleet in 2026, three years late.
The extra money is included in a draft bill released in Congress this week intended to keep the government from running out of money Friday night.
Separately, the Navy, HII and General Dynamics have developed a “Shipyard Accountability and Workforce Support” initiative under which already appropriated funds would be frontloaded to boost worker pay immediately. Its fate is unclear.
The Huntington Ingalls Industries-Newport News Shipbuilding facility in Virginia. - Chris Oxley/U.S. Navy/Reuters
The shipbuilding program’s problems are endemic to the U.S. industrial base. As manufacturing moved offshore and capital and labor migrated to more lucrative fields, the associated managerial know-how and skilled labor have atrophied.
That now looks like a threat to U.S. economic and military security as China’s industrial prowess and strategic threat have grown.
In the past three years, China has built 47% of all the world’s ships, and the U.S. just 0.1%, according to United Nations data. China’s shipyards build both commercial and military vessels, a significant strategic advantage. From 2014 to 2023, China’s navy launched 157 ships while the U.S. launched 67, according to independent defense analyst Tom Shugart.
The U.S. is now trying to build capacity in sectors from semiconductors to renewable energy, in part by sending a “demand signal” to investors and workers. Subsidies to semiconductor plants, for example, signal to students there are careers in making chips.
The demand signal for warships faded after the Cold War ended. Submarine production slumped from 3.8 a year in the 1980s to 0.7 in the 1990s, according to Eric Labs, a navy analyst at the Congressional Budget Office. It flickered to life again in the 2000s amid China’s growing threat and the need to replace aging ships. Warship tonnage under construction went from 68,000 in 2014 to 123,000 this year, Labs estimates.
Under the Navy’s latest plan, that would reach 167,000 in 2034. But shipyards will struggle to meet that goal. Since 2019, the Navy has planned on three subs (two attack, one ballistic) a year, but actual production has been just half that, Labs estimates.
The number of suppliers has shrunk dramatically, creating additional chokepoints. One source of delays on subs were problems at a sole supplier of large castings such as of rudders. HII has since added two suppliers in the U.K.
Chris Kastner, chief executive of HII, is enthusiastic about the potential of additive manufacturing (or “3-D printing”) to produce bespoke components in a fraction of the time and cost of traditional manufacturing, but the Navy’s stringent approval process slows implementation.
Still, labor is the main chokepoint. HII operates its own apprentice schools, but they don’t fill all its needs. Workers hired off the street don’t last as long. The first question instructor Dana Gayle asks a new recruit is, “‘Are you ready to be a shipbuilder?’ It’s hard work. You’re standing all day. You’re on hard concrete, on steel. It’s cold. It’s hot. You might be in an awkward position. A lot of this stuff’s very dangerous that we deal with.”
Thirty years ago, the average welder here had 20 years of experience, said Boykin. Today, half have less than four years’ experience. Inexperience reduces productivity and adds delays. Newport News recently reported that around 20 welders had skipped a crucial step, leading to substandard welds on aircraft carriers and submarines.
Under contracts negotiated before the pandemic inflation, salaries here start at $17 an hour, exceed $20 within a year, and top $30 for more senior craftsmen.
That once represented a significant premium to unskilled jobs in the region. Not now. Local fast-food restaurants pay up to $16 an hour, and Target is advertising warehouse jobs at up to $24.
Kastner said, “The spread between the shipbuilding manufacturing wage and basic wage in services such as retail essentially disappeared. So it’s just much easier for someone to leave and do a less demanding job.”
Annual attrition among welders is 30%. Among the younger generation, there is “more job hopping, looking for better money, better benefits,” said Kenny Blizzard, a 37-year veteran welder and assistant shop steward for the United Steelworkers. Some welders can earn $5 or $6 more elsewhere, he said.
Higher salaries would help a lot, Kastner said. “It would bring people back into the fold.” But shipbuilders’ ability to pay more is constrained by contracts signed before the pandemic. Newport News’ third-quarter profit margin was just 1%. That is why the industry is pressing the Navy and Congress to rework contracts to allow for more pay upfront.
That, along with the demand signal, will improve submarine production, Kastner said. “I can’t predict when, but I know it’s going to get much better.”
