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It is doubtless a positive to see that the Heron Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:HRTX) share price has gained some 72% in the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been stomach churning. Like a ship taking on water, the share price has sunk 88% in that time. So we don't gain too much confidence from the recent recovery. The fundamental business performance will ultimately determine if the turnaround can be sustained. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.
The recent uptick of 19% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.
See our latest analysis for Heron Therapeutics
Given that Heron Therapeutics didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
In the last half decade, Heron Therapeutics saw its revenue increase by 4.4% per year. That's far from impressive given all the money it is losing. It's not so sure that share price crash of 13% per year is completely deserved, but the market is doubtless disappointed. While we're definitely wary of the stock, after that kind of performance, it could be an over-reaction. We'd recommend focussing any further research on the likelihood of profitability in the foreseeable future, given the muted revenue growth.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. You can see what analysts are predicting for Heron Therapeutics in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Heron Therapeutics had a tough year, with a total loss of 23%, against a market gain of about 16%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 13% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Heron Therapeutics (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.