Here's Why We're Wary Of Buying PayPoint's (LON:PAY) For Its Upcoming Dividend

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PayPoint plc (LON:PAY) is about to trade ex-dividend in the next 3 days. The ex-dividend date occurs one day before the record date which is the day on which shareholders need to be on the company's books in order to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is important because any transaction on a stock needs to have been settled before the record date in order to be eligible for a dividend. Meaning, you will need to purchase PayPoint's shares before the 30th of November to receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 29th of December.

The company's next dividend payment will be UK£0.095 per share. Last year, in total, the company distributed UK£0.38 to shareholders. Calculating the last year's worth of payments shows that PayPoint has a trailing yield of 7.5% on the current share price of £5.1. Dividends are an important source of income to many shareholders, but the health of the business is crucial to maintaining those dividends. We need to see whether the dividend is covered by earnings and if it's growing.

Check out our latest analysis for PayPoint

Dividends are usually paid out of company profits, so if a company pays out more than it earned then its dividend is usually at greater risk of being cut. It paid out 88% of its earnings as dividends last year, which is not unreasonable, but limits reinvestment in the business and leaves the dividend vulnerable to a business downturn. We'd be worried about the risk of a drop in earnings.

When a company paid out less in dividends than it earned in profit, this generally suggests its dividend is affordable. The lower the % of its profit that it pays out, the greater the margin of safety for the dividend if the business enters a downturn.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

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LSE:PAY Historic Dividend November 26th 2023

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Businesses with shrinking earnings are tricky from a dividend perspective. Investors love dividends, so if earnings fall and the dividend is reduced, expect a stock to be sold off heavily at the same time. PayPoint's earnings per share have fallen at approximately 7.7% a year over the previous five years. When earnings per share fall, the maximum amount of dividends that can be paid also falls.

Another key way to measure a company's dividend prospects is by measuring its historical rate of dividend growth. In the last 10 years, PayPoint has lifted its dividend by approximately 3.1% a year on average. That's intriguing, but the combination of growing dividends despite declining earnings can typically only be achieved by paying out a larger percentage of profits. PayPoint is already paying out 88% of its profits, and with shrinking earnings we think it's unlikely that this dividend will grow quickly in the future.