In This Article:
Happy July 19, readers. Phil Rosen here, coming to you from NYC. On this date in 1969, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin went into orbit around the moon.
It's been five decades since astronauts walked in space and markets people still can't agree on what will happen next on Earth.
Today, I'm breaking down what two top firms are seeing for stocks this summer and beyond.
Let's jump in.
If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. Download Insider's app here.
1. Recession or not, stocks are going to keep falling, according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. The firm's top strategist said traders are being too optimistic about company earnings, which are likely to slow under inflationary pressures that the Fed can't seem to quell.
"Counter-trend rally may continue, but make no mistake, we don't believe this bear market is over, even if we avoid a recession — the odds of which are increasing," Wilson said in a Monday research note.
To Wilson, there's a 36% chance of a downturn in the next 12 months, thanks to rising jobless claims and declining job openings.
All of the above are going to be too much for stocks to prop up, which has left Wilson with a 3,900 forecast for the S&P 500 next year — barely a whisper away from current levels.
So Wilson's a widely respected voice on the Street, but Stifel's chief equity strategist, Barry Bannister, has just about the opposite forecast — he's predicting the S&P 500 to jump at least 9% to 4,200 this summer. Though Bannister has said before that he thinks the market has entered a secular bear market that could last for quite some time, right now, stocks are poised to gain.
That relief rally will reward investors if the economy avoids a recession over the next six to nine months, which Bannister also expects because of better-than-expected earnings power, a decline in oil prices, and cooling inflation.
In his words: "Recession fear is over-done."
2. US stock futures rise early Tuesday. Global shares, however, wavered as investors focused on upcoming central bank meetings, starting with the European Central Bank this week. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies were down, with bitcoin trading below $22,000. Here are the latest market moves.
3. On the docket: Johnson & Johnson, Novartis AG, and Lockheed Martin Corp, all reporting.
4. Experts gave advice on managing your career in an uncertain economy. Amid stock market drops and sky-high inflation, many workers are confused and have questions about their futures. For answers, Insider spoke to eight economists, career coaches, and management experts — here's what the mixed market signals mean for your career.