With a higher probability that Secretary Hillary Clinton will win the White House embedded in the latest polls, analysts say that overall the market is in a stronger position.
“A Clinton victory would be inflationary and supportive to higher bond yields due to a potential bounce-back in GDP growth (as corporates lose a reason to postpone capex decisions), a rise in minimum wages, and the potential for looser fiscal policy,” Credit Suisse’s Lori Calvasina said.
History is on the side of Calvasina’s assessment. Looking at data since 1928, S&P returns have been stronger under Democratic presidents than under Republicans.
However, Calvasina noted that the risk now for the markets has shifted to concern about less balance of leadership.
“In many investors’ minds, the perceived risks associated with a Trump victory in the Presidential race have been replaced with concerns about the implications of a Democratic sweep of leadership in Congress (for both the Senate and House to flip),” she said.
In the two year post-election period, median returns for the S&P 500 returns tend to be a bit stronger when Republicans control both chambers of Congress (34%) than when Democrats do (29%), according to Credit Suisse.
“We think this reflects an affinity among investors for a balance in leadership in Washington,” Calvasina said.
Sector winners
Overall, increased certainty under Clinton should help consumer spending and discretionary names, according to Credit Suisse. And while some may be pressured by higher labor costs—pushed higher by Clinton’s support for a higher minimum wage—companies have been able to offset these expenses while benefiting from more well-positioned customers. And, franchise-oriented companies—like McDonald’s (MCD)—should be more insulated.
Meanwhile Credit Suisse noted that stocks with international exposure—including the industrial sector specifically—are well-positioned under a Clinton White House.
This is related to fear over the implications of candidate Donald Trump’s isolationist views on trade, Calvasina said, which pose a risk to the economy and “challenge the fundamental playbook that equity investors have had in place over the last decade, in which global exposure/sourcing is viewed as a good thing and a driver of growth.”
Plus, Clinton—like Trump—also supports a big push in infrastructure spending, which should provide a boost to machinery names like Eaton (ETN) and Fluor (FLR), multi-industry names like United Technologies (UTX) and Honeywell (HON) along with aerospace and defense names like Boeing (BA).