Here's the template for Trump's dealmaking on jobs

Donald Trump has shown his hand. Now, it’s time for CEOs to study up.

The incoming president has upset a few boardrooms by criticizing companies such as Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Carrier and other manufacturers that move US jobs overseas, or build products in low-cost countries to sell in the United States. Trump’s crusades have come full-circle in a few cases: Ford, for instance, just announced a new investment in Michigan, partly in response to Trump’s entreaties. Carrier modified plans to close an Indiana factory and move the whole thing to Mexico, and will now keep some of those jobs in Indiana.

The pattern Trump is establishing sheds light on how he’s likely to impose broader policies meant to bring back jobs from overseas or create new ones, and even renegotiate crucial trade deals. Trump doesn’t always get everything he wants. But he settles for outcomes that look like a win. Here’s the template for Trump’s dealmaking on jobs:

Phase 1: The attack. It’s usually a tweet, calling out an American company for building products overseas that it sells in the United States. It doesn’t seem to bother Trump if US companies build stuff overseas and sell it there as well. And so far, he hasn’t gone after any foreign companies that import to the US. American companies that sell to Americans and could seemingly employ more Americans are his principal targets.

Trump doesn’t appear to be systematic in terms of the companies he targets; there’s no reason to think there’s a detailed list of offending companies he’s working through, one at a time. More likely, he spots something in the news about offshoring or foreign production, and responds spontaneously. Up till now, most CEOs of targeted companies never saw it coming.

Phase 2: The follow-through. Trump has complained about some companies, then dropped it. He urged a boycott of Apple (AAPL) last year, for instance, when it fought an FBI request to unlock the iPhone belonging to a terrorism suspect. But nothing came of that criticism. Trump has also complained about Amazon (AMZN) CEO Jeff Bezos, who owns the Washington Post, which published numerous unflattering stories on Trump during last year’s campaign. Again, nothing has happened (so far). Some companies have battle-ready CEOs and strong reputations that even Trump can’t puncture. Trump seems to know when he’s outmatched, and it’s prudent to fold.

Trump kept up his screeds against Ford and Carrier, by contrast, expanding on his critical tweets in speeches and media appearances. In those cases, Trump arguably had a PR edge because neither is a beloved institution that inspires loyalty among millions of consumers. Trump knew they were vulnerable to negative publicity, and exploited the opening.