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What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. Basically this means that a company has profitable initiatives that it can continue to reinvest in, which is a trait of a compounding machine. However, after investigating Armstrong World Industries (NYSE:AWI), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. To calculate this metric for Armstrong World Industries, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.17 = US$277m ÷ (US$1.8b - US$218m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).
So, Armstrong World Industries has an ROCE of 17%. In absolute terms, that's a pretty normal return, and it's somewhat close to the Building industry average of 15%.
Check out our latest analysis for Armstrong World Industries
In the above chart we have measured Armstrong World Industries' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for Armstrong World Industries .
What Does the ROCE Trend For Armstrong World Industries Tell Us?
Things have been pretty stable at Armstrong World Industries, with its capital employed and returns on that capital staying somewhat the same for the last five years. This tells us the company isn't reinvesting in itself, so it's plausible that it's past the growth phase. So unless we see a substantial change at Armstrong World Industries in terms of ROCE and additional investments being made, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger.
The Bottom Line
We can conclude that in regards to Armstrong World Industries' returns on capital employed and the trends, there isn't much change to report on. Although the market must be expecting these trends to improve because the stock has gained 58% over the last five years. But if the trajectory of these underlying trends continue, we think the likelihood of it being a multi-bagger from here isn't high.
Like most companies, Armstrong World Industries does come with some risks, and we've found 1 warning sign that you should be aware of.