Investors in VINCI SA (EPA:DG) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.4% to close at €104 following the release of its annual results. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of €49b coming in 2.4% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of €5.82, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for VINCI

Following last week's earnings report, VINCI's 13 analysts are forecasting 2020 revenues to be €49.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to increase 8.2% to €6.30. Before this earnings report, analysts had been forecasting revenues of €49.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of €6.41 in 2020. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Analysts reconfirmed their price target of €107, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic VINCI analyst has a price target of €128 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €83.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Zooming out to look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up both against past performance, and against industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that analysts expect VINCI's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 1.1%, compared to a historical growth rate of 4.5% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the market, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 2.6% next year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that analysts still expect VINCI to grow slower than the wider market.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with analysts reconfirming that earnings per share are expected to continue performing in line with their prior expectations. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that VINCI's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.