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Statistically speaking, long term investing is a profitable endeavour. But no-one is immune from buying too high. Zooming in on an example, the Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:HCSG) share price dropped 58% in the last half decade. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
Check out our latest analysis for Healthcare Services Group
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Looking back five years, both Healthcare Services Group's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 7.7% per year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 16% per year, over the period. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We know that Healthcare Services Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between Healthcare Services Group's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for Healthcare Services Group shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 53%, over the last 5 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
Healthcare Services Group's TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 23%. The silver lining is that the share price is up in the short term, which flies in the face of the annualised loss of 9% over the last five years. While 'turnarounds seldom turn' there are green shoots for Healthcare Services Group. Before spending more time on Healthcare Services Group it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.