Earnings results often indicate what direction a company will take in the months ahead. With Q1 behind us, let’s have a look at Molina Healthcare (NYSE:MOH) and its peers.
Upfront premiums collected by health insurers lead to reliable revenue, but profitability ultimately depends on accurate risk assessments and the ability to control medical costs. Health insurers are also highly sensitive to regulatory changes and economic conditions such as unemployment. Going forward, the industry faces tailwinds from an aging population, increasing demand for personalized healthcare services, and advancements in data analytics to improve cost management. However, continued regulatory scrutiny on pricing practices, the potential for government-led reforms such as expanded public healthcare options, and inflation in medical costs could add volatility to margins. One big debate among investors is the long-term impact of AI and whether it will help underwriting, fraud detection, and claims processing or whether it may wade into ethical grey areas like reinforcing biases and widening disparities in medical care.
The 11 health insurance providers stocks we track reported a strong Q1. As a group, revenues beat analysts’ consensus estimates by 3% while next quarter’s revenue guidance was in line.
Amidst this news, share prices of the companies have had a rough stretch. On average, they are down 10.5% since the latest earnings results.
Molina Healthcare (NYSE:MOH)
Founded in 1980 as a provider for underserved communities in Southern California, Molina Healthcare (NYSE:MOH) provides managed healthcare services primarily to low-income individuals through Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace insurance programs across 21 states.
Molina Healthcare reported revenues of $11.15 billion, up 12.2% year on year. This print exceeded analysts’ expectations by 2.6%. Overall, it was a satisfactory quarter for the company with a decent beat of analysts’ EPS estimates.
Molina Healthcare Total Revenue
Unsurprisingly, the stock is down 3.6% since reporting and currently trades at $319.80.
With over 9,000 retail pharmacy locations serving as neighborhood health destinations across America, CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) operates retail pharmacies, provides pharmacy benefit management services, and offers health insurance through its Aetna subsidiary.
CVS Health reported revenues of $94.59 billion, up 7% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 1.5%. The business had an exceptional quarter with an impressive beat of analysts’ same-store sales estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ EPS estimates.
CVS Health Total Revenue
Although it had a fine quarter compared its peers, the market seems unhappy with the results as the stock is down 9% since reporting. It currently trades at $60.69.
With over 100 million people served across its various businesses and a workforce of more than 400,000, UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) operates a health insurance business and Optum, a healthcare services division that provides everything from pharmacy benefits to primary care.
UnitedHealth reported revenues of $109.6 billion, up 9.8% year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 1.7%. It was a softer quarter as it posted a significant miss of analysts’ full-year EPS guidance estimates.
UnitedHealth delivered the weakest performance against analyst estimates in the group. The company added 395,000 customers to reach a total of 54.12 million. As expected, the stock is down 45.6% since the results and currently trades at $318.28.
With over 80% of its revenue derived from federal government contracts, Humana (NYSE:HUM) provides health insurance plans and healthcare services to approximately 17 million members, with a strong focus on Medicare Advantage plans for seniors.
Humana reported revenues of $32.11 billion, up 8.4% year on year. This print was in line with analysts’ expectations. More broadly, it was a mixed quarter as it also produced a solid beat of analysts’ EPS estimates but a significant miss of analysts’ customer base estimates.
The company lost 1.51 million customers and ended up with a total of 14.84 million. The stock is down 10.7% since reporting and currently trades at $231.77.
Formerly known as AmerisourceBergen until its 2023 rebranding, Cencora (NYSE:COR) is a global pharmaceutical distribution company that connects manufacturers with healthcare providers while offering logistics, data analytics, and consulting services.
Cencora reported revenues of $75.45 billion, up 10.3% year on year. This result met analysts’ expectations. Zooming out, it was a mixed quarter as it underperformed in some other aspects of the business.
The stock is down 4% since reporting and currently trades at $278.72.
In response to the Fed’s rate hikes in 2022 and 2023, inflation has been gradually trending down from its post-pandemic peak, trending closer to the Fed’s 2% target. Despite higher borrowing costs, the economy has avoided flashing recessionary signals. This is the much-desired soft landing that many investors hoped for. The recent rate cuts (0.5% in September and 0.25% in November 2024) have bolstered the stock market, making 2024 a strong year for equities. Donald Trump’s presidential win in November sparked additional market gains, sending indices to record highs in the days following his victory. However, debates continue over possible tariffs and corporate tax adjustments, raising questions about economic stability in 2025.
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