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For many, the main point of investing in the stock market is to achieve spectacular returns. While the best companies are hard to find, but they can generate massive returns over long periods. Just think about the savvy investors who held HCA Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:HCA) shares for the last five years, while they gained 318%. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 13% gain in the last three months.
After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During five years of share price growth, HCA Healthcare achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 18% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 33% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that HCA Healthcare has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of HCA Healthcare, it has a TSR of 334% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
HCA Healthcare provided a TSR of 3.4% over the last twelve months. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. It's probably a good sign that the company has an even better long term track record, having provided shareholders with an annual TSR of 34% over five years. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand HCA Healthcare better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for HCA Healthcare that you should be aware of before investing here.