The projected fair value for Haverty Furniture Companies is US$36.79 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Haverty Furniture Companies' US$20.86 share price signals that it might be 43% undervalued
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc. (NYSE:HVT) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$30.6m
US$47.6m
US$45.3m
US$44.1m
US$43.7m
US$43.7m
US$44.1m
US$44.7m
US$45.6m
US$46.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ -4.94%
Est @ -2.63%
Est @ -1.02%
Est @ 0.11%
Est @ 0.90%
Est @ 1.46%
Est @ 1.85%
Est @ 2.12%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.0%
US$28.1
US$40.1
US$34.9
US$31.2
US$28.3
US$26.0
US$24.1
US$22.4
US$20.9
US$19.6
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$276m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.0%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$760m÷ ( 1 + 9.0%)10= US$320m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$596m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$20.9, the company appears quite undervalued at a 43% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
NYSE:HVT Discounted Cash Flow March 24th 2025
Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Haverty Furniture Companies as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.452. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Dividends are not covered by earnings.
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Haverty Furniture Companies, we've compiled three additional factors you should further examine:
Future Earnings: How does HVT's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
