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Shareholders might have noticed that Hargreaves Lansdown plc (LON:HL.) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.6% to UK£14.81 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of UK£631m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 4.3% to hit UK£0.63 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Hargreaves Lansdown
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 14 analysts covering Hargreaves Lansdown, is for revenues of UK£601.7m in 2022, which would reflect a discernible 4.6% reduction in Hargreaves Lansdown's sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 12% to UK£0.55 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£601.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.58 in 2022. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.8% to UK£16.71, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hargreaves Lansdown at UK£22.47 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£13.50. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.6% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2022. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 0.05% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Hargreaves Lansdown's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.