If You Had Bought Tribune Resources (ASX:TBR) Shares Five Years Ago You'd Have Made 50%

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Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. And while active stock picking involves risks (and requires diversification) it can also provide excess returns. For example, long term Tribune Resources Limited (ASX:TBR) shareholders have enjoyed a 50% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around -15% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 17% , including dividends .

View our latest analysis for Tribune Resources

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Tribune Resources achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 23% per year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 8.4% over the same period. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

ASX:TBR Past and Future Earnings March 31st 2020
ASX:TBR Past and Future Earnings March 31st 2020

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Tribune Resources's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Tribune Resources's TSR for the last 5 years was 150%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Tribune Resources shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 17% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. However, that falls short of the 20% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Tribune Resources better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Tribune Resources (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.