If You Had Bought Top Form International (HKG:333) Stock Five Years Ago, You'd Be Sitting On A 33% Loss, Today

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In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Top Form International Limited (HKG:333), since the last five years saw the share price fall 33%. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 23%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 17% in the last three months. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 8.3% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.

View our latest analysis for Top Form International

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

In the last half decade Top Form International saw its share price fall as its EPS declined below zero. At present it's hard to make valid comparisons between EPS and the share price. However, we can say we'd expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

SEHK:333 Past and Future Earnings, July 20th 2019
SEHK:333 Past and Future Earnings, July 20th 2019

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

A Dividend Lost

The share price return figures discussed above don't include the value of dividends paid previously, but the total shareholder return (TSR) does. By accounting for the value of dividends paid, the TSR can be seen as a more complete measure of the value a company brings to its shareholders. Over the last 5 years, Top Form International generated a TSR of -12%, which is, of course, better than the share price return. Although the company had to cut dividends, it has paid cash to shareholders in the past.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 1.1% in the twelve months, Top Form International shareholders did even worse, losing 21%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 2.5% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

We will like Top Form International better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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