Update of 2023 forecasts and update of 2024-2028 business plan of the French perimeter
Paris, 22 November 2023
Casino Group has today published a presentation on its website relating to the update of its 2023 forecasts for the France perimeter1 (EBITDA after lease payments and free-cash flows) and the update of its 2024-2028 business plan.
Update of 2023 forecasts for France
In view of the results for the 3rd quarter and the trends observed to date in the 4th quarter, the Group estimates that its 2023 EBITDA after leases would be, depending on the successful implementation of the action plans, between -140m€2 and -78m€. The revision of EBITDA after lease payments is mainly due to the consideration of:
the latest DCF3 sales forecasts, in particular for Hypermarkets, where the turnaround (volumes and customers presented below) is in progress, but is slower than initially expected ;
the impact, on the DCF margin rate, of the price investments required in the current market environment to pursue the recovery of the business.
Taking into account the new trajectory for 2023, the continuation of supplier credit and the expected proceeds from the sale of Exito (see press release of 16 October 2023), based on forecasts reviewed by Accuracy and Advancy, Casino Group does not anticipate any liquidity issue between now and the date of completion of the financial restructuring, which is expected to take place by the end of the 1st quarter of 2024. The implementation of the capital increases provided for by this financial restructuring will lead to massive dilution of existing shareholders and Rallye will lose control of Casino.
Update of the 2024-2028 business plan
The 2024-2028 business plan published on 20 September 2023 has been updated to take into account the new 2023 trajectory and new action plans identified for the period.
Key figures from this business plan (detailed in the presentation) are presented below.
Update on the current trading
The recovery in Supermarkets traffic and volumes is ongoing, with +10% in traffic and +7% in volumes over the last week. In Hypermarkets, the gradual turnaround is underway (-3% in customer numbers and -12% in volumes).
French consolidation: key financial indicators
In M€
2023
2024
2025
//
2028
EBITDA after lease payments
-1004
222
509
912
APCO5
-284
-237
-147
-58
Other operating cash flow items
-206
-120
-91
-87
Operating cash flow
-590
-135
272
//
767
Capex
-455
-487
-487
-513
Operating cash flow after capex
-1,045
-622
-215
//
254
Tax
-27
-17
-16
-8
Change in WC
-990
29
59
25
of which WC financing
-837
of which postponed tax and social debts
216
-216
Free cash flow
-2,062
-610
-173
//
271
FCF excluding operating financings and social and tax charges
-1,442
-394
-173
271
Current trading S466
Supermarkets7
Graphs available in attached pdf
Hypermarkets
Graphs available in attached pdf
This press release was prepared solely for information purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments. Likewise, it does not provide and should not be treated as providing investment advice. It has no connection with the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any receiver. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. Recipients should not consider it as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. All the opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.
Forward-looking statements
This press release may include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology, including the terms as “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “may”, “assume”, “plan”, “intend”, “will”, “should”, “estimate”, “risk” and or, in each case, their negative, or other variations or comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts and include statements regarding the Casino Group’s intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, among other things, the Casino Group’s plans, objectives, assumptions, expectations, prospects and beliefs and statements regarding other future events or prospects. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. These forward-looking statements reflect the Casino Group’s current expectations, intentions or forecasts of future events, which are based on the information currently available and on assumptions made by the Casino Group. The forward-looking statements and information contained in this announcement are made as of the date hereof and the Casino Group is under no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable laws. All subsequent written or oral forward-looking statements attributable to the Casino Group, or persons acting on the Casino Group’s behalf, included in but not limited to press releases (including on the Casino Group’s website), reports and other communications, are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained throughout this press release.
1 France retail + ecommerce 2 Including sensitivities added by Accuracy and Advancy 3 Distribution Casino France 4 Expected value in the range between -140m€ and -78m€ 5 Other operating expenses. This line includes cash restructuring and concept costs and concept costs, as well as non- recurring costs related to the closure or disposal of stores 6 4-week period, except the last indicator which is a 1-week period 7 Historical supermarkets, including Codim
