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Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. When you buy individual stocks, you can make higher profits, but you also face the risk of under-performance. That downside risk was realized by Grit Real Estate Income Group Limited (LON:GR1T) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 12%. That contrasts poorly with the market decline of 1.3%. We wouldn't rush to judgement on Grit Real Estate Income Group because we don't have a long term history to look at.
It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.
View our latest analysis for Grit Real Estate Income Group
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Grit Real Estate Income Group managed to increase earnings per share from a loss to a profit, over the last 12 months.
We're surprised that the share price is lower given that improvement. If the improved profitability is a sign of things to come, then right now may prove the perfect time to pop this stock on your watchlist.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on Grit Real Estate Income Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Grit Real Estate Income Group's TSR for the last 1 year was -1.5%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Given that the market gained 1.3% in the last year, Grit Real Estate Income Group shareholders might be miffed that they lost 1.5% (even including dividends). While the aim is to do better than that, it's worth recalling that even great long-term investments sometimes underperform for a year or more. It's worth noting that the last three months did the real damage, with a 4.8% decline. This probably signals that the business has recently disappointed shareholders - it will take time to win them back. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Grit Real Estate Income Group (including 2 which make us uncomfortable) .