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Grand City Properties S.A. (ETR:GYC) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.2% to €11.98 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of €149m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 29% to hit €0.25 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Grand City Properties after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for Grand City Properties
Taking into account the latest results, Grand City Properties' six analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be €607.7m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Grand City Properties is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of €1.09 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €609.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.32 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €13.22, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Grand City Properties at €19.70 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €8.40. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Grand City Properties' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 2.6% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see a revenue decline of 11% annually. So it's clear that despite the slowdown in growth, Grand City Properties is still expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.