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GOP Presidential Campaign Rapidly Turning into a Two-Man Race

As Republicans brace for a second major debate next week, the quest for the GOP presidential nomination has turned into a race between two Washington outsiders – billionaire Donald Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.

It has been no secret for months that GOP voters have tired of conventional politicians and have been transfixed by Trump’s brash barnstorming and attacks on illegal immigrants and “stupid” government leaders. The astounding development just six months before the first primary votes are cast is that many of Trump’s and Carson’s most prominent rivals – including former Florida governor Jeb Bush, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker –are being left in the dust.

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A new Quinnipiac University poll of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers released on Friday confirms that Trump and Carson are pulling away in a crowded field of 17 Republican candidates and are displaying personal and leadership qualities that have animated the party’s conservative base.

Earlier this summer, Trump and Carson each garnered 10 percent of the support of likely Iowa caucus goers in a Quinnipiac survey. In the latest findings, Trump is on top with 27 percent of the GOP vote and Carson is second with 21 percent. Their nearest rival is Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, with nine percent, followed by Bush with 6 percent and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Rubio with five percent each.

Walker, who at one time electrified Iowa conservative political gatherings with tales of doing battle with Wisconsin public employees, has plummeted in the Quinnipiac survey from 18 percent in July to just 3 percent in the latest poll. A series of gaffes, desultory speeches and desperate efforts to keep up with the high-flying Trump appear to have hurt him in Iowa and with GOP voters nationally. Bush is doing little better, despite his fast start in raising a huge campaign war chest and lining up support among more moderate or establishment Republicans.

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“The Iowa Republican Caucus looks like a two-man race in which the Washington experience that has traditionally been a major measuring stick that voters have used to choose candidates is now a big negative,” Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a statement.

“With five months until the balloting, anything can happen. But the field has become a two-tiered contest – Donald Trump and Ben Carson ahead and everyone else far behind.”