In This Article:
Short-covering and position-squaring ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has helped gold recover from early session weakness that drove the precious metal to its lowest level in more than a year. The market is currently in a position to turn higher for the session, but still remains in a position to close lower for a four straight week.
At 1130 GMT, December Comex Gold futures are trading $1220.50, up $0.40 or +0.04%.
At 1230 GMT, the U.S. will release its latest Non-Farm Payrolls report. The Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to show an increase of 190K. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 3.9% and Average Hourly Earnings are expected to come in at 0.3%, up from 0.2%.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, the prolonged move down in terms of price and time has put the market in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. This chart pattern will not change the trend, but it will indicate the buying is greater than the selling at current price levels. This could lead to a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.
A trade through $1220.10 will put the market in a position to post a reversal bottom, while a move through $1212.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The minor trend is down. A trade through $1237.80 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum to the upside.
The current short-term range is $1244.70 to $1212.50. Its 50% level or pivot at $1228.60 is the first upside target.
The current main range is $1278.20 to $1212.50. If the trend changes to up then look for a possible test of its retracement zone at $1245.40 to $1253.20.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early trade, the direction of the December Comex Gold futures contract today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at $1220.10.
A sustained move under $1220.10 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could lead to a re-test of the intraday low at $1212.50. Taking out this level with conviction will indicate the selling is getting stronger. The daily chart is wide open to the downside under $1212.50 with the main bottom at $1162.00 the next major target.
A sustained move over $1220.10 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the downtrending Gann angle at $1226.70. This is followed by the short-term pivot at $1228.60.
Look for a technical bounce on the first test of $1228.60. Overtaking it, however, could trigger an acceleration into the next downtrending Gann angle at $1235.70, followed by the minor top at $1237.80.