New Gold NGD is set to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 29, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NGD’s earnings per share has moved up from a prior anticipated loss of four cents per share to the current expected earnings of one cent per share over the past 60 days. The estimate however indicates a 50% decline from the year-ago quarter’s earnings per share of two cents per share.
Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
New Gold’s Earnings Surprise History
New Gold’s bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. Over the period, the company has recorded an average surprise of 79.2%. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors Likely to Have Shaped NGD’s Q1 Performance
In the January-March 2025 period, gold prices averaged around $2,883.40 per ounce, marking a 39% increase from the prior-year quarter. Geopolitical tension, tensions over the escalating trade war and solid demand from central banks have boosted gold prices. Prices had crossed the $3,000 per ounce threshold during the quarter.
Copper prices also demonstrated strength, rising about 19% higher year over year. In the latter half of March, prices exceeded the $5 per pound threshold, fueled by concerns over tariffs. We expect the rally in copper and gold prices to have reflected in New Gold’s top-line performance in the first quarter.
For 2025, New Gold expects consolidated gold production at 325,000-365,000 ounces, reflecting a 16% increase year over year. The first quarter is expected to have represented approximately 14% of this total, or a range of 45,500-51,100 ounces of gold. This is lower than New Gold’s first-quarter 2024 consolidated production of 70,898 gold ounces. The decline reflects the significant waste stripping at Rainy River in the first quarter of 2025 and the expedited exhaustion of the B3 cave at New Afton.
Rainy River gold production is projected at 265,000 – 295,000 ounces for 2025, highlighting an increase of 20% from the prior year. The first quarter is expected to represent approximately 11% of the projected range for 2025, which translates to a range of 29,150-32,450 ounces of gold. The Rainy River mine had produced 52,719 ounces of gold in the first quarter of 2024.
New Afton’s 2025 gold output is expected at 60,000 – 70,000 ounces. We expect first-quarter 2025 production to be between 16,350 and 18,650 ounces. The New Afton mine had produced 18,179 ounces of gold in the first quarter of 2024.
Copper production in 2025 is expected to be in line with 2024 at 50-60 million pounds as the ramp-up in C-Zone throughput is offset by planned lower grades from both the exhaustion of the B3 cave and first draw bells from C-Zone.
Copper production is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, with first-quarter production expected at 20% of the 2025 total, or around 10-12 million pounds. The company had produced 13.3 million pounds of copper in the first quarter of 2024.
All-in sustaining costs are expected at $1,025-$1,125 per ounce in 2025, a 17% decrease at the midpoint. This will be due to higher production and lower operating costs from the New Afton C-Zone crusher and conveyor system and the decrease of the Rainy River Phase 4 strip ratio. Total cash costs per gold ounce sold are likely to be in the range of $600 - $700. Total costs are expected to decrease quarter over quarter throughout 2025 due to increasing production and a lower strip ratio at Rainy River in the second half of 2025.
With costs expected to decrease in the second half with increasing production, we expect all-in sustaining costs per gold ounce sold in the first quarter of 2025 to be higher than the reported figure of $1,396 per ounce in the first quarter of 2024. Likewise, cash costs per gold ounce sold are expected to be higher than $874 per ounce in the first quarter of 2024.
So overall, New Gold’s first-quarter results are expected to reflect improved gold and copper prices, offset by higher costs and a decline in both gold and copper production.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for New Gold
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for New Gold this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for NGD is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: New Gold currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
NGD’s Price Performance
New Gold stock has surged 93% over the past year compared with the industry’s 42.7% growth.
Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some basic material companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF, scheduled to release earnings on May 7, has an Earnings ESP of +3.67% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus estimate for CF Industries’ earnings for the first quarter of 2025 is pegged at $1.43 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 38.8%. CF Industries has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 18.1%.
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +11.07% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's earnings for the first quarter of 2025 is pegged at 22 cents per share, indicating a surge of 120% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The company has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 23.7%.
Methanex Corporation MEOH, scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on April 30, has an Earnings ESP of +4.74%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Methanex's earnings for the first quarter of 2025 is pegged at $1.25 per share, indicating a surge of 92.3% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. MEOH currently has a Zacks Rank of 3. Methanex has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 85.2%.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
