Carmakers are scheduled to announce June sales on Tuesday, and we thought we'd give you a preview of what some of the auto industry research and information firms believe will happen. In May, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales came in at 16.8 million, its highest reading since July 2006.
Industry research firm Edmunds expects the June SAAR to drop 15.4% to 16.3 million. Truecar expects the SAAR for June to fall to 16.4 million, and Kelley Blue Book (KBB) is forecasting a June SAAR of 16.3 million. June had fewer sales days than either May 2014 or June 2013, accounting for some of the decline.
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One thing all three auto industry watchers agree on is that sales at General Motors Co. (GM) will be lower in June than in May and lower than June a year ago. Edmunds forecasts GM sales down 14.9% in June to 242,200 units, compared with 284,694 in May. Truecar expects GM sales to reach just 257,000, and KBB is looking for sales of 255,000.
None of the forecasts for GM is heartening. According to Truecar, GM cut its sale incentives by nearly 12% year-over-year in June. And while the negative impact from GM's millions of recalls has not previously affected demand, it could be that as the company looks for ways to offset the money that is going to pour out to fix the recalled vehicles and to pay for litigation, incentives do not keep pace with GM's competitors. GM took a $1.3 billion charge in the first quarter for recall-related expenses and expects to take another $700 million charge in the second quarter.
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Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is expected to sell 219,601 units in June, according to Edmunds, roughly the same number as Truecar projects. That is down more than 13% from May sales and about 6.5% from June 2013 sales. KBB forecasts sales of 218,000, or down 7.2%. Ford boosted its sales incentives by 9.3% year-over-year in June, according to Truecar.
Edmunds forecasts that Chrysler Group sold 166,483 units in June, up 6.3% year-over-year, but down 14.4% from May. Truecar forecast sales of 170,000, and KBB's forecast calls for sales of 160,000. Chrysler increased its incentive spending by 9.8% year-over-year in June.
Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) is expected to report sales of 197,808 units, according to Edmunds, and 208,000 according to Truecar. That is up 1.3% and 6.5% year-over-year, respectively. KBB forecasts Toyota's unit sales to drop 0.6% to 194,000 units. Toyota raised incentive spending 2.6% year-over-year in June.