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It might be of some concern to shareholders to see the Global Ship Lease, Inc. (NYSE:GSL) share price down 22% in the last month. But that doesn't undermine the fantastic longer term performance (measured over five years). In that time, the share price has soared some 322% higher! Arguably, the recent fall is to be expected after such a strong rise. Of course what matters most is whether the business can improve itself sustainably, thus justifying a higher price.
Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 21%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Over half a decade, Global Ship Lease managed to grow its earnings per share at 45% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 33% over the same period. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days. The reasonably low P/E ratio of 1.90 also suggests market apprehension.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Global Ship Lease has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts .
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Global Ship Lease's TSR for the last 5 years was 458%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Global Ship Lease shareholders are down 7.7% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 4.5%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 41%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Global Ship Lease better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Global Ship Lease you should be aware of.