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As you might know, Global Net Lease, Inc. (NYSE:GNL) last week released its latest third-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$197m missing analyst predictions by 2.1%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.33 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Global Net Lease
Taking into account the latest results, the seven analysts covering Global Net Lease provided consensus estimates of US$795.5m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a discernible 2.1% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 38% to US$0.59. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$803.5m and US$0.46 per share in losses. While next year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a regrettable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$9.63, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Global Net Lease, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$12.00 and the most bearish at US$7.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.7% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 17% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Global Net Lease is expected to lag the wider industry.