GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks tense, dollar bullish for central bank binge

In This Article:

* Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

* S&P 500 futures slip, Nikkei futures down

* Fed leads pack of central bank meetings

* Market leaning toward 75 bp from Fed, PBOC eases

* Dollar firm near multi-year highs

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Shares slipped in Asia on Monday and the dollar firmed as investors braced for a packed week of central bank meetings that are certain to see borrowing costs rise across the globe, with some risk of a super-sized hike in the United States.

Markets are already fully priced for a rise in interest rates of 75 basis points from the Federal Reserve, with futures showing a 20% chance of a full percentage point.

They also show a real chance rates could hit 4.5% as the Fed is forced to tip the economy into recession to subdue inflation.

"How high will the funds rate ultimately need to go?" said Jan Hatzius, chief economist Goldman Sachs.

"Our answer is high enough to generate a tightening in financial conditions that imposes a drag on activity sufficient to maintain a solidly below-potential growth trajectory."

He expects the Fed to hike by 75 basis points on Wednesday, followed by two half-point moves in November and December.

Also important will be Fed members' "dot plot" forecasts for rates, which are likely to be hawkish, putting the funds rate at 4%-4.25% by the end of this year, and even higher next year.

That risk saw two-year Treasury yields surge 30 basis points last week alone to reach the highest since 2007 at 3.92%, so making stocks look more expensive in comparison and dragging the S&P 500 down almost 5% for the week.

On Monday, holidays in Japan and the UK made for a slow start and S&P 500 futures dipped 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.5%.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.2%, while FTSE futures were closed.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.5%, after losing almost 3% last week.

Japan's Nikkei was shut, but futures implied an index of 27,360 compared to Friday's close of 27,567.

China's central bank went its own way and cut a repo rate by 10 basis points to support its ailing economy, leaving blue chips up 0.1%.

A RUSH TO TIGHTEN

Bank of America's latest fund manager survey suggests allocations to global stocks are at an all-time low.

"But with both U.S. yields and the unemployment rate headed to 4-5%, poor sentiment isn't enough to keep the S&P from making new lows for the year," warned BofA analysts in a note.

"Our suite of 38 proprietary growth indicators depict a grim outlook for global growth, yet we are staring at one of the most aggressive tightening episodes in history, with 85% of the global central banks in tightening mode."