In This Article:
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Fed funds futures price U.S. rates higher for longer
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Dollar gains, bonds slide
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Stocks focus on economic signals and climb; MSCI AxJ +0.6%
By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Bonds fell and the dollar rose on Thursday as roaring U.S. retail sales had investors reckoning on interest rates staying higher for longer to temper demand, though stock markets were focused on the bright side for earnings and climbed a little.
The S&P 500 rose 0.3% overnight. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.6% in early trade. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.6%.
The greenback stood near six-week highs against the yen, yuan and kiwi. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which rise when bond prices fall, hit their highest since early January.
U.S. retail sales increased by the most in nearly two years in January - up 3%, against expectations of a 1.8% rise - as Americans bought cars, clothes and furniture despite higher borrowing costs.
The figures came on the heels of stronger-than-expected labour data and with sticker-than-expected inflation.
Equities - with the Nasdaq up 15% so far this year - are clinging to the positives, while in interest rate markets investors are quickly ditching hopes for cuts later in 2023.
"A lot of the data has been quite positive, so people might be thinking: 'Where's the recession?'" said Jason Wong, a senior market strategist a BNZ in Wellington.
"It's positive for earnings and that can offset rates - at least that's the charitable explanation," he said. "Either that, or it's a massive 'sell' (signal)".
U.S. interest rate futures - which only a couple of weeks ago implied the Fed funds rate, currently fixed between 4.5% and 4.75%, would drop below 4.5% by year's end - now see rates above 5% through the year.
Two-year Treasury yields, which also track short-term interest rate expectations, hit their highest since November at 4.703% overnight. The ten-year yield hit 3.828% on Thursday.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%.
DOLLAR ASCENDANT
Around Asia, South Korea's Kospi led gains with a 1.4% rise. The Hang Seng rose 0.7% and mainland Chinese stocks were flat.
Australia's ASX 200, where companies are in the midst of earnings reporting, rose 0.9%. Wealth manager AMP led losers with a 34% annual profit drop that sent its struggling shares down 13%. A 26% gain in profit at telco Telstra drove the stock to a one-year high.
Elsewhere the repricing of the interest rates outlook is putting an end to a couple months of selling of the dollar in currency markets.