Commercial Aviation has been making a roaring comeback from the pandemic with strong passenger demand levels thanks to strong & sustained pent-up demand for domestic travel across most key markets & regions which has been, in turn, driving up fleet utilization levels across most carriers while also rekindling plans for fleet expansion as well as recapitalization.
The success of the Farnborough Airshow, held after a 4-year hiatus in July 2022, further testifies it with the ongoing strong recovery in demand & activity levels across airlines globally has been steady as well as encouraging especially for domestic travel and is projected to reach the pre-pandemic levels by 2023 to be followed by full recovery in 2024 amid surging oil prices putting downward pressures on profitability
The picture from the supply side, however, is not that pretty with the Airbus-Boeing duopoly raring to ramp up production levels especially for narrow body lines with burgeoning demand. However, their respective supply chains are unable to catch-up and match the pace being expected by their aircraft OEM lords as they chug & carve their way out of the pandemic blues & financial blows inflicted by it while combating global supply chain disruptions marked by surging raw material prices as well as shortages following the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
The issues are especially acute at the engine manufacturers level with both Airbus and Boeing unable to really take-off on production numbers on the narrow-body front owing to limited engine production & supplies by CFM International as well as Pratt & Whitney in terms of engines production in units for 2021 and H1 2022, with the scenario likely to be unchanged for the rest of 2022.
The aviation supplier base, thus, needs to effectively offset the cuts made during the pandemic and instead gear up for growth going forward with production ramp-ups imminent over near term which are likely to peak again close to the pre-pandemic levels as Boeing already has plans to ramp-up 737 MAX production to 47 per month by the end of 2023 while Airbus is gunning for 65 per month by mid-2023 for its A320neo family.
The aviation supplier base thus needs to get in shape quickly while battling working capital crunch with weak balance sheets amid soaring inflation levels and an unprecedented economic tightening by the Fed
Report Excerpts:
Airbus' launch of the A350F freighter program in 2021 has come as a much needed boost for Rolls Royce which has been struggling owing to its complete absence from the narrow body aircraft market which has been faring much better following the recovery from pandemic as against the wide body market.
Clearance from the FAA is likely to pave the way for restart of 787 deliveries auguring well for GE and Rolls Royce. The battle of the engines in the narrow body market between CFM's LEAP vs. Pratt & Whitney's GTF is likely to be intense once again going forward with improving order intake scenario and likely production ramp-ups across Airbus & Boeing in 2023.
However, the biggest, upcoming growth opportunity is going to be Boeing's NSA which will most likely be a single aisle aircraft targeted at taking on Airbus' A321LR/XLR right in the middle of the market and will fill the void in Boeing's product portfolio as a replacement for the 757.
Boeing is likely to launch this NSA during the second half of the current decade with a three-way battle likely to be fought fiercely between the triad of engine suppliers, namely, CFM with its open fan RISE program, Rolls Royce's Ultrafan and Pratt & Whitney's evolved GTF to power Boeing's latest scratch-up aircraft program which is likely to make its entry into service by 2035
Market Outlook: Trends & Challenges
The long-term industry fundamentals, however, remain robust and firmly in place with forecasts for strong tailwinds to prevail in form of deliveries of around 40,000+ new airplanes by the industry projected over the next two decades.
Additionally, aviation needs to go green and absolutely carbon-neutral by 2050 by focusing on sustainability and switching to sustainable power sources, with Electric and Hydrogen-powered airplanes likely to rule the skies as well as the future, complemented by Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) powered traditional airplanes operating with conventional aviation turbofan engines
However, these monumental shifts will entail massive & radical technological leaps along with equally humungous developmental challenges in virtually uncharted territories led by the engine OEMs and backed by deep R&D budgets, policy incentives & support as well as commitments.
Commercial Aviation industrial base will also have to tackle huge production capacity shortfalls and logistical challenges on the SAF front which need to be scaled up rapidly in production levels from their current availability levels of mere 1% of the global demand for aviation fuels to substantial levels while maintaining a manageable economic & price equation with their conventional, fossil fuel counterparts.
GE's development of a megawatt-class hybrid-electric propulsion system under NASA's EPFD program for single aisle airliners, CFM International's ongoing collaboration with Airbus for the development of a hydrogen-based propulsion system by 2035 and CFM's RISE & Rolls Royce's next generation Ultrafan programs, promising substantial reduction in carbon emissions as compared to the current generation engines, are encouraging signs & much needed stepping stones auguring well for the future
Key Topics Covered:
Part - 1
Section 1: Global Commercial Aircraft Turbofan Engines Market - Backdrop & Overview 1.1 Introduction & Market Overview 1.2 Global Aviation Gas Turbine Engines Market - Key Segments 1.3 Global Commercial Aircraft Turbofan Engines Market 1.4 Market Size - Commercial Aircraft Turbofan Engines - in Units & Value 1.5 Global Commercial Aircraft Turbofan Engines Fleet - Distribution by Engine Manufacturers 1.6 Global Commercial Jet Aircraft Fleet - Share of Engine Manufacturers 1.7 Global Commercial Aircraft Market - Key Drivers
Section 2: Global Commercial Aircraft Turbofan Engines Market: Competitive Landscape 2.1 Global Commercial Aircraft Turbofan Engines Market - Competitive Landscape 2.2 Global Commercial Aircraft Turbofan Engines Market - Market Shares for Engine OEMs - In Units & Value 2.3 Market Shares for Engine OEMs across Narrow Body Aircraft Segment 2.4 Market Shares for Engine OEMs across Wide Body Aircraft Segment 2.5 Market Shares for Engine Manufacturers - Regional Aircraft Segment 2.6 Market Shares for Engine Manufacturers across key Aircraft Programs - In Units
Engine Deliveries Share
Backlog Share
2.7 Market Shares for Engine Manufacturers for Key Geographic Regions
Part 2
Analysis on Top 4 Engine Manufacturers - Commercial Aircraft Turbofans -
GE Aviation
Pratt & Whitney
Rolls Royce
Safran (CFM International)
Section 3: Business Structure & Snapshot - On Top 4 Engine OEMs a) Founded b) Headquartered c) Business Segments d) Employees e) Product Portfolio - Major Engine Families, Presence on Aircraft Programs and Key Competitors f) Market Capitalization g) Key Executives h) Shareholding Pattern & Structure
Section 4: Financial Performance Snapshot -Charts & Analysis for each Company: 1. Revenue Base & Growth Trend 2. Revenues Split by Key Segments 3. Revenues Split by Key Geographic Markets & Regions 4. Gross Earnings & Margin Trend 5. Operating Earnings & Operating Margin Trend 6. Return on Sales Trend 7. Profitability Growth Trend 8. Cash Flow from Operations 9. R&D Expenditure Trend 10. CAPEX Trend
Section 5 - Strategic Positioning & SWOT Analysis - For Each of the Top 4 Engine Manufacturers
Strengths to be Leveraged
Weaknesses to Overcome
Opportunities for Growth
Threats to be Mitigated
Section 6: Key Strategies & Plans - For Each of the Top 4 Commercial Aircraft Turbofan Engine Manufacturers
Comprehensive Analysis of Key Strategies & Plans for each Engine Manufacturer
Product & Services Portfolio Strategies & Plans
Market Specific Strategies & Plans
R&D Strategies & Plans
Growth Strategies & Plans
Business & Corporate Strategies & Plans
Sales & Marketing Strategies & Plans
Production/Manufacturing Strategies & Plans
Financial Strategies & Plans
Acquisitions, Strategic Alliances & JVs
Other Strategies & Strategic Initiatives
Part 3
Section 7: Global Commercial Aircraft Turbofan Engines Market - Force Field Analysis -
Analysis of Driving & Restraining Forces and their Overall Dynamics
Driving Forces
Restraining Forces
Section 8: Key Trends
Industry Trends
Market Trends
Technology Trends
Section 9: Key Issues, Challenges & Risk Factors
Section 10: Strategic Market Outlook - Commercial Aircraft Turbofan Engines Market - 2022-2041 10.1 Analysis of Emerging Market Scenario for Commercial Aviation Sector 10.2 Global Demand Outlook - Commercial Aircrafts - 2022-2041 10.3 Demand Growth Projections for Commercial Aircrafts through 2041 across Segments - 10.3.1 Narrowbodies 10.3.2 Widebodies 10.3.3 Regional Jets 10.4 Demand Growth Projections for Aviation Turbofan Engines: 2022-2041 10.4.1 Engines Demand Forecasts - In Units 10.4.2 Value of Projected Engines sales over the forecast period - In Value Terms 10.5 Commercial Aviation Turbofan Engine Delivery Projections for Market Segments - In Units and Value - Through 2041 10.5.1 Narrowbody 10.5.2 Widebody 10.5.3 Regional Jets 10.6 Commercial Aviation Turbofan Engine Delivery Forecasts by Thrust Class - In Units and Value - Through 2041 10.6.1 Low Thrust 10.6.2 Medium Thrust 10.6.3 High Thrust 10.7 Commercial Aviation Turbofan Engine Delivery Forecasts for Key Geographic Regions - Through 2041 - In Units and Value
