The Global Commercial Aircraft market has been making a roaring comeback from the pandemic with strong passenger demand levels thanks to strong & sustained pent-up demand for travel across most key markets & regions apart from robust global cargo traffic volumes which collectively have been, in turn, driving up fleet utilization levels across most carriers while also rekindling plans for fleet expansion as well as recapitalization now.
The success of the Farnborough Airshow, held after a 4-year hiatus in July 2022, further testified it and proved to be especially favorable for Boeing and its beleaguered 737MAX program which almost had a revenant with significant new orders from airlines at the show and is rapidly moving towards stability thanks to Delta's mega order for 100 737MAX 10 aircrafts worth $13.5 billion at Farnborough. Further, the ungrounding of the 787 by the FAA has come as another shot in the arm for Boeing which now seems to be in the turnaround mode despite facing serious challenges.
The ongoing recovery in demand & activity levels across airlines globally has been steady as well as encouraging especially for domestic travel and is projected to reach the pre-pandemic levels by 2023 to be followed by full recovery in 2024 amid surging oil prices putting downward pressures on profitability
Industry Backdrop:
The picture from the supply side, however, is not that pretty with the Airbus-Boeing duopoly raring to ramp up production levels especially for narrow body lines with burgeoning demand.
However, their respective supply chains and the global aviation industrial base are unable to catch-up and match the pace being expected by their aircraft OEM lords as they chug & carve their way out of the pandemic blues & financial blows inflicted by it while combating global supply chain disruptions marked by surging raw material prices as well as shortages following the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
The issues are especially acute at the engine manufacturers level with both Airbus and Boeing unable to really take-off on production numbers on the narrow bodies front owing to limited engine production & supplies by CFM International as well as Pratt & Whitney in terms of engines production in units for 2021 and H1 2022, with the scenario likely to be unchanged for the rest of 2022.
The aviation supplier base, thus, needs to effectively offset the cuts made during the pandemic and instead gear up for growth going forward with production ramp-ups imminent over near term which are likely to peak again close to the pre-pandemic levels as Boeing already has plans to ramp-up 737 MAX production to 47 per month by the end of 2023 while Airbus is gunning for 65 per month by mid-2023 for its A320neo family.
The aviation supplier base, thus, needs to get in shape quickly while battling working capital crunch with weak balance sheets amid soaring inflation levels and an unprecedented economic tightening by the Fed
Market Outlook, Trends & Challenges:
The long-term industry fundamentals, however, remain robust and firmly in place with forecasts for strong tailwinds to prevail in form of deliveries of around 40,000+ new airplanes by the industry projected over the next two decades.
Additionally, aviation needs to go green and absolutely carbon-neutral by 2050 by focusing on sustainability and switching to sustainable power sources, with Electric and Hydrogen-powered airplanes likely to rule the skies as well as the future, complemented by Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) powered traditional airplanes operating with conventional aviation turbofan engines
However, these monumental shifts will entail massive & radical technological leaps along with equally humungous developmental challenges in virtually uncharted territories led by the engine OEMs and backed by deep R&D budgets, policy incentives & support as well as commitments.
Commercial Aviation industrial base will also have to tackle huge production capacity shortfalls and logistical challenges on the SAF front which need to be scaled up rapidly in production levels from their current availability levels of mere 1% of the global demand for aviation fuels to substantial levels while maintaining a manageable economic & price equation with their conventional, fossil fuel counterparts.
Latest, under-development technological efforts by Engine OEMs promising substantial reduction in carbon emissions as compared to the current generation engines are encouraging signs & the much needed stepping stones auguring well for the future
Key Topics Covered:
Part - 1
Section 1: Global Commercial Aircraft Market - Introduction & Overview
