President Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 ushered in a whirlwind of economic policy changes that left investors grappling with historic levels of uncertainty and market volatility. The administration's aggressive trade measures and regulatory shifts shook global financial markets in the first 100 days.
The U.S. stock market suffered the worst performance in the first 100 days of any presidential term since President Gerald Ford assumed office in 1974. Since Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, the S&P 500 has lost 7.3%, shedding $3.66 trillion in market value, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 6.8% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index plummeted more than 11%.
During Trump’s first 100 days, consumer confidence fell, inflation expectations rose, economic slowdown concerns were renewed, tourism fell sharply and business sentiment across various industries was affected (read: Travel Slump Hits Airlines: Should You Buy the Dip With ETF?).
The broad turmoil has substantially pushed down the President's approval numbers. The latest opinion polls from The New York Times, ABC News/The Washington Post, and Fox News showed his approval ratings at 42%, 39%, and 44%, respectively. This represents the lowest approval ratings for any newly elected president at the 100-day mark in the last seven decades, per CNN.
A Wild Ride for the Stock Market
After reaching a record high in February, the S&P 500 tumbled into correction territory by March, as Trump began outlining plans for new tariffs. The market took a steep dive in early April, following the announcement of the so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs. The Dow Jones plummeted over 4,000 points in two days, marking a 9.5% decline. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced similar drops, with the Nasdaq entering bear market territory.
Since then, the market has recovered some losses. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 registered their sixth consecutive winning session on April 29 since July and November, respectively.
The so-called "Magnificent Seven" that drove the market to record highs in 2024 has faltered badly this year. Apple (AAPL) is down 15.7%, NVIDIA (NVDA) has dropped 18.8%, and Tesla (TSLA) has plunged 27.7%. Amazon (AMZN) has fallen 14.6%, briefly dipping further on Tuesday following a Punchbowl News report that it would begin disclosing how much of an item’s price reflects tariff costs (read: Can Q1 Earnings Inject Fresh Life Into Magnificent 7 ETFs?).
A Look at Trump Policies in 100 Days
In his first 100 days, President Trump has issued approximately 140 executive orders, targeting areas such as immigration, education and federal regulations. This nearly matches the 162 that President Joe Biden signed over four years. This pace of executive action hasn’t been seen since Franklin D. Roosevelt, who governed during the Great Depression.
On April 2, dubbed "Liberation Day," Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports, with specific levies reaching up to 145% on Chinese goods. These measures aimed to bolster domestic manufacturing but sparked immediate global trade tensions. However, Trump softened his stance on tariffs last week, raising hopes of a resolution of the trade conflict. At a White House press conference last week, Trump called the current 145% reciprocal tariffs "too high" and said they would "come down substantially." According to several reports, China might suspend its 125% tariff on some U.S. goods, which has boosted market sentiment.
ETFs Winners & Losers
While the broad-based slump has pushed down many corners of the investing world, a few are surviving. We have highlighted some ETFs from both areas over the past three months:
Winners
iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) – Up 48%
Volatility ETFs roar high amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies. The fear gauge tends to outperform when markets are declining or fear levels about the future are high.
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) – Up 36.8%
The trade tariff disputes and recessionary fears have spurred demand for the yellow metal as a safe-haven investment. Gold topped $3,500 per ounce for the first time ever last week but took a breather in recent sessions as trade tensions eased (read: Gold Dazzles: Amplify Returns With Leveraged ETFs).
iShares MSCI Poland ETF (EPOL) – Up 28.5%
Inflationary pressure and concerns over the new administration’s tariffs shifted investors' interest toward international stocks. iShares MSCI Poland ETF offers exposure to a broad range of companies in Poland by tracking the MSCI Poland IMI 25/50 Index.
Losers
ARK 21Shares Active Ethereum Futures Strategy ETF (ARKZ) – Down 42.8%
Ethereum was one of the biggest losers of Trump's early presidency. Investors lost faith in these ETFs, drawing out capital heavily, reflecting the broader disinterest or caution in the market.
Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) – Down 31.2%
Bitcoin, which rallied on Trump’s promise to promote cryptocurrencies, dropped sharply to a low of $74,000 in early April before rebounding to over $95,000 currently.
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES) – Down 27.1%
U.S. oil prices dropped to below $60 per barrel as trade tensions continued to weigh on the demand outlook. It is on track for a monthly loss exceeding 15%, marking its steepest decline since November 2021.
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