GLD Inflows Hit $2 Billion: What’s Behind the Gold Rush?

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Kent Thune, CFP

Wed, Mar 26, 2025, 6:00 AM 4 min read

Gold prices have soared to new all-time highs, driven by growing economic uncertainty, inflation concerns and a weakening U.S. dollar. Investors have responded by pouring billions into gold ETFs, particularly the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which has seen a surge in inflows as market participants seek safety.

This rush into gold signals a broader shift in sentiment—investors are diversifying away from U.S. assets, concerned about rising geopolitical risks, trade tensions and central bank policies that may further weaken the dollar.

As gold strengthens, a self-reinforcing cycle has emerged: A weaker U.S. dollar makes gold more attractive to global investors, driving up demand, which in turn pushes prices higher and further erodes confidence in the dollar.

At the same time, fears of persistent inflation have led many to hedge with gold, adding to the momentum.

Flows into GLD reached $2 billion Monday, according to etf.com data, while bullion traded just 30 points off its all-time high Tuesday.

With gold at record levels, the key question now is whether this rally will continue or reverse. Investors must weigh the potential for further dollar weakness and inflation against the possibility of Federal Reserve intervention or a shift back into riskier assets.

What Do Record Gold Prices Mean?

When the price of gold reaches an all-time high, it typically signals heightened investor concerns about economic uncertainty, inflation or geopolitical risks. Investors often view gold as a safe-haven asset, meaning demand surges when confidence in fiat currencies, equities or economic stability weakens.

A record-high gold price can indicate any of the following.

Inflation fears: Investors seek protection from eroding purchasing power.
Recession or slowdown concerns: Gold tends to rise when growth prospects dim.
Geopolitical uncertainty: Wars, trade tensions or global instability drive the flight to safety.
Weakening U.S. dollar: A falling dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, increasing demand.
Central bank buying: Increased accumulation by global central banks can boost prices.

Gold and International ETFs: Diversifying Away from the U.S.

Gold’s recent all-time highs can also be attributed to investors diversifying away from the U.S., which has lately been seen with the rising popularity of international ETFs, such as the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) and the Select STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF (EUAD).

When investors sell U.S. stocks and ETFs and buy international stocks and ETFs, it typically leads to downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. Here's why:

1. Reduced Demand for USD

When investors sell U.S. assets, they receive U.S. dollars in return. To buy international stocks or ETFs, they must convert those dollars into foreign currencies (e.g., euros, yen or emerging market currencies). This selling of USD and buying of foreign currencies weakens the dollar relative to those currencies.

2. Capital Outflows from the U.S.

Large-scale shifts away from U.S. markets create capital outflows, reducing demand for USD-based assets. This often happens when investors seek better growth opportunities or diversification abroad.

3. Foreign Currencies Strengthen

As more dollars are exchanged for euros, yen or emerging market currencies, those currencies appreciate against the dollar. This can make international investments more attractive and further reinforce the trend. However, the impact depends on other economic factors, such as interest rates and global risk sentiment. If U.S. interest rates remain high or risk appetite declines, demand for the dollar may persist despite selling of U.S. stocks.

The Gold Price, Weak Dollar Feedback Loop

As investors rotate dollars out of U.S. investments, the lower dollar makes gold even more attractive. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle where a weaker U.S. dollar and gold prices move in tandem. Here’s how the feedback loop works:

1. U.S. Dollar Weakens = Gold More Attractive

Since gold is priced in U.S. dollars, a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign investors, increasing demand. As demand rises, gold prices increase, making it a more attractive asset.

2. Higher Gold Prices = More Investors Flock to Gold

As gold prices rise, momentum builds, attracting more investors seeking a safe haven. This further increases demand and pushes prices even higher.

3. Investors Move Away from USD Assets = More Dollar Weakness

If investors continue selling U.S. stocks and bonds, the capital outflows put additional downward pressure on the dollar. With a weaker dollar, gold’s appeal strengthens even more, reinforcing the cycle.

4. Lower Dollar = Inflation Concerns = More Gold Buying

A declining dollar can increase inflationary pressures by making imported goods more expensive. Since gold is often viewed as a hedge against inflation, this fuels even more demand.

This feedback loop can persist as long as economic conditions (e.g., inflation fears, global uncertainty or declining confidence in U.S. assets) continue to favor gold over the dollar. However, if the Fed raises rates or risk appetite shifts back toward U.S. assets, the cycle can reverse.