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The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Gibson Energy Inc. (TSE:GEI), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its full-year results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CA$12b revenue coming in 6.0% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.93 missed the mark badly, arriving some 28% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for Gibson Energy
Following last week's earnings report, Gibson Energy's nine analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be CA$11.6b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 38% to CA$1.28. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CA$12.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$1.55 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.
The consensus price target fell 6.5% to CA$25.42, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Gibson Energy, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$29.50 and the most bearish at CA$23.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Gibson Energy is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Gibson Energy's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.9% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 17% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Gibson Energy is expected to lag the wider industry.