Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, GenusPlus Group fair value estimate is AU$2.21
Current share price of AU$1.68 suggests GenusPlus Group is potentially 24% undervalued
GenusPlus Group's peers seem to be trading at a higher discount to fair value based onthe industry average of 28%
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of GenusPlus Group Limited (ASX:GNP) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)
AU$10.0m
AU$16.0m
AU$25.0m
AU$23.8m
AU$23.2m
AU$22.9m
AU$22.9m
AU$23.0m
AU$23.3m
AU$23.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Est @ -4.65%
Est @ -2.61%
Est @ -1.18%
Est @ -0.18%
Est @ 0.53%
Est @ 1.02%
Est @ 1.36%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.1%
AU$9.3
AU$14.0
AU$20.4
AU$18.1
AU$16.5
AU$15.2
AU$14.2
AU$13.3
AU$12.6
AU$11.9
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$145m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.1%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$490m÷ ( 1 + 7.1%)10= AU$247m
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is AU$393m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$1.7, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 24% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
ASX:GNP Discounted Cash Flow April 5th 2024
Important Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at GenusPlus Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.069. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for GenusPlus Group
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Construction market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
No apparent threats visible for GNP.
Moving On:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For GenusPlus Group, we've put together three relevant factors you should further examine:
Future Earnings: How does GNP's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
